Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 93L)

[tropicwatch]

There is a lemon from the NHC.

[cycloneye]

3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
An area of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow development of this system
is possible over the weekend and early next week while it moves
slowly northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Jr0d]

I don't like how the EURO is slower with an extra 24 hours over water before finding Florida.

For now its something to watch for early next week, too early of course to speculate future land fall and strength but not something I have any concerns about.

[gatorcane]

Ghost town on the GFS ensembles, I think I see one with development in the BOC but we have the very bearish GFS and its ensembles vs the bullish Euro and ensembles.

[SFLcane]

Can’t say I didn’t tell ya lol.

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1694503265314996588

[NDG]

How often does EPAC - ATL crossovers occur? It seems rare. The only example I found was Unnamed 1902 which was further north over to Bay of Compeche.

4 times as far as I know it's a really rare event.

https://i.ibb.co/48g9T8z/hurricane-UNNAMED-1842.png

Missing here is TS Cristobal 2020 which formed from Amanda's remnant low from the EPAC.

[NDG]

Ghost town on the GFS ensembles, I think I see one with development in the BOC but we have the very bearish GFS and its ensembles vs the bullish Euro and ensembles.

That's how the GFS initially was with Franklin and Harold with not much ensemble support.

[NDG]

Can’t say I didn’t tell ya lol.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1694503265314996588?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

He's looking for anything to discredit the Euro, that's how he was when the Euro was showing Franklin to form but the GFS was not. Lol.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Can’t say I didn’t tell ya lol.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1694503265314996588?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

He's looking for anything to discredit the Euro, that's how he was when the Euro was showing Franklin to form but the GFS was not. Lol.

I don't see how he's wrong here. The Euro is having terrible consistency.

[zzzh]

When EC, Gem, Icon are in an agreement, simply ignore the GFS.

[SFLcane]

[BobHarlem]

Still On the 18z Canadian (only goes out to 84 hours)



from: https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weath ... type=dateo

[Stratton23]

The GFS has been absolutely terrible with genesis this year, I would not pay much attention to it, it will cave into the euro , CMC and ICON

[Cpv17]

The GFS has been absolutely terrible with genesis this year, I would not pay much attention to it, it will cave into the euro , CMC and ICON

Agreed.

The longer this takes to develop, the better odds we will have in Texas. The faster it develops, better odds for Florida.

[Spacecoast]

Comparing 18z vs 12z EPS....

[Ianswfl]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/j5syVTYt/IMG-7493.jpg

More east the 18z and a couple members are 115mph same general path as Ian except maybe getting stronger before landfall.

Also note the time! 18z monday some of the members are just hours away from landfall of a major. Not much time here to prepare, especially being the weekend and everyone out doing stuff might be ignoring the news.

[blp]

[Ianswfl]

https://i.ibb.co/S6YSGpf/e4d6521280e96040d30d396622b05d7810fba6e47b5d31a0e7b4785feebc310c.png

The euro ensembles are faster with this. By monday night some members have a cat3 in the SE Gulf, landfall sometime late Tue.

[Jr0d]

No mention in the NWS Key West. Maybe they will say something about it tomorrow.

Some of the models show a significant impact here, but right now just something to watch nothing to be concerned about.

[Ianswfl]

No mention in the NWS Key West. Maybe they will say something about it tomorrow.

Some of the models show a significant impact here, but right now just something to watch nothing to be concerned about.

Wouldn't crank up to a cat2 likely until after the Keys.