ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Iceresistance]

:uarrow: 2018-2019 the atmosphere was in El Nino.

It was a weak El Nino, this one is the strongest since 2015.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: 2018-2019 the atmosphere was in El Nino.

It was a weak El Nino, this one is the strongest since 2015.

Nonetheless still an El Nino.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: 2018-2019 the atmosphere was in El Nino.

It was a weak El Nino, this one is the strongest since 2015.

We will know tommorow if the present El Niño will be upgraded to moderate. 9 AM EDT is the time CPC releases it.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: 2018-2019 the atmosphere was in El Nino.

It was a weak El Nino, this one is the strongest since 2015.

We will know tommorow if the present El Niño will be upgraded to moderate. 9 AM EDT is the time CPC releases it.

Think that's the most likely scenario. MEI and RONI are more indicative of weak though, but the SOI is telling us August has changed and JA MEI might go above, JJ saw enough of a rise despite not making much progress on the weekly front.

[cycloneye]

It was a weak El Nino, this one is the strongest since 2015.

We will know tommorow if the present El Niño will be upgraded to moderate. 9 AM EDT is the time CPC releases it.

Think that's the most likely scenario. MEI and RONI are more indicative of weak though, but the SOI is telling us August has changed and JA MEI might go above, JJ saw enough of a rise despite not making much progress on the weekly front.

Afte the update is released, later comes the CPC ENSO blog where they explain in detail, about the outlook.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso

[LarryWx]

It was a weak El Nino, this one is the strongest since 2015.

We will know tommorow if the present El Niño will be upgraded to moderate. 9 AM EDT is the time CPC releases it.

Think that's the most likely scenario. MEI and RONI are more indicative of weak though, but the SOI is telling us August has changed and JA MEI might go above, JJ saw enough of a rise despite not making much progress on the weekly front.

The recent -SOI dominant period has been driven by very high Darwin SLP rather than low Tahiti SLP. As a matter of fact, the three week period ending this Friday August 11th is going to end up having the highest three week averaged Darwin SLP on record by a good margin (records go back to 1991-2 El Niño). Here are the top five highest 21 day averaged Darwin SLPs on record:

1) 7/22-8/11/2023: ~1016.00 mb (exact # TBD on Friday)

2) 7/26-8/15/1997: 1015.83 mb

3) 8/4-8/24/1993: 1015.73 mb (not El Niño)

4) 7/11-31/2015: 1015.65 mb

5) 8/2-8/22/1994: 1015.54 mb

[Emmett_Brown]

We will know tommorow if the present El Niño will be upgraded to moderate. 9 AM EDT is the time CPC releases it.

Think that's the most likely scenario. MEI and RONI are more indicative of weak though, but the SOI is telling us August has changed and JA MEI might go above, JJ saw enough of a rise despite not making much progress on the weekly front.

The recent -SOI dominant period has been driven by very high Darwin SLP rather than low Tahiti SLP. As a matter of fact, the three week period ending this Friday August 11th is going to end up having the highest three week averaged Darwin SLP on record by a good margin (records go back to 1991-2 El Niño). Here are the top five highest 21 day averaged Darwin SLPs on record:

1) 7/22-8/11/2023: ~1016.00 mb (exact # TBD on Friday)

2) 7/26-8/15/1997: 1015.83 mb

3) 8/4-8/24/1993: 1015.73 mb (not El Niño)

4) 7/11-31/2015: 1015.65 mb

5) 8/2-8/22/1994: 1015.54 mb

I asked Bard AI which is more important; high Darwin pressure or low Tahiti pressure, and here is what it said:

"The most important factor when evaluating a negative SOI related to El Niño is how low the pressure is at Tahiti. This is because the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is calculated by taking the difference in air pressure between Tahiti and Darwin. A negative SOI means that the pressure is lower at Tahiti than it is at Darwin. This difference in pressure is caused by the changes in ocean temperatures that occur during El Niño events.

When the ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean warm up, the trade winds weaken. This allows warm water to pool in the eastern Pacific Ocean, which further warms the ocean and weakens the trade winds. The weakening of the trade winds also causes the air pressure to drop at Tahiti.

The combination of warm ocean temperatures and low air pressure at Tahiti is what defines a negative SOI and an El Niño event. Therefore, the lower the pressure is at Tahiti, the more likely it is that an El Niño event is occurring.

The high pressure at Darwin is not as important of a factor in determining whether or not an El Niño event is occurring. This is because the high pressure at Darwin is caused by the warm water that is pooling in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The warm water is also responsible for the low pressure at Tahiti.

In conclusion, the most important factor when evaluating a negative SOI related to El Niño is how low the pressure is at Tahiti. The high pressure at Darwin is not as important of a factor."

[Kingarabian]

Think that's the most likely scenario. MEI and RONI are more indicative of weak though, but the SOI is telling us August has changed and JA MEI might go above, JJ saw enough of a rise despite not making much progress on the weekly front.

The recent -SOI dominant period has been driven by very high Darwin SLP rather than low Tahiti SLP. As a matter of fact, the three week period ending this Friday August 11th is going to end up having the highest three week averaged Darwin SLP on record by a good margin (records go back to 1991-2 El Niño). Here are the top five highest 21 day averaged Darwin SLPs on record:

1) 7/22-8/11/2023: ~1016.00 mb (exact # TBD on Friday)

2) 7/26-8/15/1997: 1015.83 mb

3) 8/4-8/24/1993: 1015.73 mb (not El Niño)

4) 7/11-31/2015: 1015.65 mb

5) 8/2-8/22/1994: 1015.54 mb

I asked Bard AI which is more important; high Darwin pressure or low Tahiti pressure, and here is what it said:

"The most important factor when evaluating a negative SOI related to El Niño is how low the pressure is at Tahiti. This is because the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is calculated by taking the difference in air pressure between Tahiti and Darwin. A negative SOI means that the pressure is lower at Tahiti than it is at Darwin. This difference in pressure is caused by the changes in ocean temperatures that occur during El Niño events.

When the ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean warm up, the trade winds weaken. This allows warm water to pool in the eastern Pacific Ocean, which further warms the ocean and weakens the trade winds. The weakening of the trade winds also causes the air pressure to drop at Tahiti.

The combination of warm ocean temperatures and low air pressure at Tahiti is what defines a negative SOI and an El Niño event. Therefore, the lower the pressure is at Tahiti, the more likely it is that an El Niño event is occurring.

The high pressure at Darwin is not as important of a factor in determining whether or not an El Niño event is occurring. This is because the high pressure at Darwin is caused by the warm water that is pooling in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The warm water is also responsible for the low pressure at Tahiti.

In conclusion, the most important factor when evaluating a negative SOI related to El Niño is how low the pressure is at Tahiti. The high pressure at Darwin is not as important of a factor."

This is true to some extent and that's why there are no true significant WWB's on the horizon. But it also means the atmosphere could be shifting to El Nino because the walker cell is weaker. The GFS was showing a better sub tropical setup yesterday that would favor a big SOI drop. Today's runs have backed off a little.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: 2018-2019 the atmosphere was in El Nino.

It was a weak El Nino, this one is the strongest since 2015.

We will know tommorow if the present El Niño will be upgraded to moderate. 9 AM EDT is the time CPC releases it.

OHC is at its lowest since March but I think moderate is definitely doable.

[cycloneye]

The CPC August update continues with El Niño Advisory as Moderate El Niño but will go up to Moderate to Strong by fall and Winter.

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
Synopsis: El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than 95% chance through December 2023 -February 2024)/

In July, El Niño continued as indicated by above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Nearly all of the weekly Niño indices in the central and eastern Pacific were in excess of +1.0ºC: Niño-3.4 was +1.1ºC, Niño-3 was +1.8ºC, and Niño1+2 was +3.4ºC (Fig. 2). Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies decreased compared to June (Fig. 3), but remained positive, in association with anomalous warmth across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 4). Tropical atmospheric anomalies were also consistent with El Niño. Starting in mid-July, low-level winds were anomalously westerly over the western equatorial Pacific, while anomalous easterlies prevailed over the eastern Pacific. Upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the eastern Pacific. Convection continued to be enhanced around the International Date Line and was weakly suppressed in the vicinity of Indonesia (Fig. 5). The equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the traditional SOI were both negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected El Niño.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... iri_update

[cycloneye]

ENSO Blog is up where they analyze more about ENSO.

[Dean_175]

Anomalies in the west have diminished and now the warmest waters of 30+C have moved to the longitude of the international dateline. Coupling should begin soon.

[Kingarabian]

The warm/positive horseshoe is clearly trying to setup in the NE Pacific. But the WNW/NW Pacific is also warming and will negate the NE Pacific's contribution to the PDO. Also making things really difficult is the -PMM which seems to be getting stronger.

[cycloneye]

The warm/positive horseshoe is clearly trying to setup in the NE Pacific. But the WNW/NW Pacific is also warming and will negate the NE Pacific's contribution to the PDO. Also making things really difficult is the -PMM which seems to be getting stronger.

https://i.postimg.cc/13Zjjw1H/sst-daily-anom.gif

In summary, what all this means for the big picture of El Niño getting stronger or not?

[weeniepatrol]

The warm/positive horseshoe is clearly trying to setup in the NE Pacific. But the WNW/NW Pacific is also warming and will negate the NE Pacific's contribution to the PDO. Also making things really difficult is the -PMM which seems to be getting stronger.

https://i.postimg.cc/13Zjjw1H/sst-daily-anom.gif

In summary, what all this means for the big picture of El Niño getting stronger or not?

It seems to be gradually coupling. The overall north Pacific could be more classic, but it is well on its way IMO

[weeniepatrol]

Also, (and apologies if this was already posted) ONI for MJJ was +0.8. JJA should be very close to +1.0.

Every successive trimonthly has risen by +0.3 since DJF. On track for moderate or strong peak.

[weeniepatrol]

Also, (and apologies if this was already posted) ONI for MJJ was +0.8. JJA should be very close to +1.0.

Every successive trimonthly has risen by +0.3 since DJF. On track for moderate or strong peak.

https://i.imgur.com/sqaxHpI.png

It's also interesting to note that, the MJJ value of +0.8 is the third highest since the positive AMO began in 1995. Only 1997 and 2015 were higher.

[Ntxw]

I think the CFSv2 has done a OK job with the subsurface. It's weakened a lot but has steadied out. Going forward, if you follow that model, a rebound will occur in Sept and Oct as the thermocline levels out alongside changing climo. New downwelling of warm water is occurring out west that will show up later in the east. As far as the winds go, the eastern Pacific yet again is seeing westerly anomalies (aided more by EPAC cyclone activity) for this tilted Nino.

SOI has risen positive after the long stretch of negatives for the time being.

[Kingarabian]

I think the CFSv2 has done a OK job with the subsurface. It's weakened a lot but has steadied out. Going forward, if you follow that model, a rebound will occur in Sept and Oct as the thermocline levels out alongside changing climo. New downwelling of warm water is occurring out west that will show up later in the east. As far as the winds go, the eastern Pacific yet again is seeing westerly anomalies (aided more by EPAC cyclone activity) for this tilted Nino.

SOI has risen positive after the long stretch of negatives for the time being.

Yeah most recent subsurface snapshots no longer show 1997/2015 as analogs. So looks like super chances are almost gone despite the very impressive anomalies over Nino 1+2 and Nino 3. Strong and moderate are still in the cards.

[cycloneye]

The CPC Weekly update has Niño 3.4 up to +1.2C.

Niño 4 +0.9ºC
Niño 3.4 +1.2ºC
Niño 3 +1.8ºC
Niño 1+2 +3.3ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf