ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[zzzh]

PDO warms up quickly.

[Yellow Evan]

https://i.imgur.com/mnsIJfA.png
PDO warms up quickly.

Nope. SSTAs off Japan have warmed just as much if not more in recent weeks.

[zzzh]

That area is less correlated with the PDO compared to central subtropical Pacific, which didn't warm that much.

[Kingarabian]

July PDO came in at -2.58.

[Ntxw]

Waters off the east of Japan has held up the PDO, along with strip of cold SW of North America, but parts of the Northeast Pacific have changed.

SOI is coupling with the Nino, very hard fall in August compared to what happened in June and July.

[LarryWx]

Nino 1+2 SSTa is today up to +3.632C per OISST after an 8 day rise of 0.7C. Per the OISST graph, tomorrow's weekly report (for the prior week) should rise from the prior +3.0C to ~+3.3C.

Meanwhile, the OHC remains just below +0.75 as of August 1st.

[Ntxw]

Per buoys ~1.5C (yellow) has spilled west towards 160W which is warmer than the prior week's 5 day avg. Should be +1.3C.

[LarryWx]

Per buoys ~1.5C (yellow) has spilled west towards 160W which is warmer than the prior week's 5 day avg. Should be +1.3C.

https://i.imgur.com/8gtHgBX.png

I'd agree based on these warming buoys. However, fwiw OISST strangely enough suggests possible slight cooling to +1.1! Maybe they'll split the difference and there will be no change.

[cycloneye]

Here is CPC weekly update of 8/7/23.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

Niño 1+2= +3.4C
Niño 3= +1.8ºC
Niño 3.4= +1.1ºC
Niño 4= +0.8C

[Iceresistance]

Here is CPC weekly update of 8/7/23.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

Niño 1+2= +3.4C
Niño 3= +1.8ºC
Niño 3.4= +1.1ºC
Niño 4= +0.8C

Wow, the El Nino is still getting crazier.

[Ntxw]

Per buoys ~1.5C (yellow) has spilled west towards 160W which is warmer than the prior week's 5 day avg. Should be +1.3C.

https://i.imgur.com/8gtHgBX.png

I'd agree based on these warming buoys. However, fwiw OISST strangely enough suggests possible slight cooling to +1.1! Maybe they'll split the difference and there will be no change.

You were correct! Looks like OISST caught that one.

[LarryWx]

Per buoys ~1.5C (yellow) has spilled west towards 160W which is warmer than the prior week's 5 day avg. Should be +1.3C.

https://i.imgur.com/8gtHgBX.png

I'd agree based on these warming buoys. However, fwiw OISST strangely enough suggests possible slight cooling to +1.1! Maybe they'll split the difference and there will be no change.

You were correct! Looks like OISST caught that one.

Thanks. Also, Nino 1+2 warmed even more than my +3.3 guess to +3.4.

Despite OISST catching that 3.4 cooling last week, things are now reversing in a hurry. The TAO buoys update today is another significantly warmer day. Also, today is significantly warmer than yesterday on OISST, the warm biased CRW, and the cool biased CDAS. The CDAS warmed a whopping 0.109 since yesterday, which is the strongest CDAS warming in one day since at least March 1st! Also, it exceeded +1.0 for the first time this El Niño. This along with the recent period of stronger -SOI tells me that we may finally have a period of sustained significant warming upcoming in 3.4, which would be the first time in two months.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the SOI maybe finally coupling. GFS has a couple more strongly negative daily values before day 5. Day 5-10 it raises it back before it tanks it again.

[jconsor]

.

[jconsor]

The significant warming near the W. coast of N. America has been partially offset by the warming between Japan and the central subtropical Pacific. Daily PDO has come up slightly from the low point of ~2 in early Jul, and is now similar to what it was in Jun at ~1.6.



The above graph is updated (with a few day delay vs. current day) here: https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/pdo.png

Waters off the east of Japan has held up the PDO, along with strip of cold SW of North America, but parts of the Northeast Pacific have changed.

SOI is coupling with the Nino, very hard fall in August compared to what happened in June and July.

https://i.imgur.com/Us32gxu.png

[zzzh]

June-July MEI only up to 0.3.

[cycloneye]

Larrywx, Ntxw, the important update from CPC for August will be released on Thursday. Let's see if they increase to Moderate El Niño or remains as Weak.

[Ntxw]

Larrywx, Ntxw, the important update from CPC for August will be released on Thursday. Let's see if they increase to Moderate El Niño or remains as Weak.

The buoys continue to show some very strong anomalies. Growing region of 1.5C+. This is about time of year when ENSO starts to exert moving into the Fall season.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1689090873823207424

[Kingarabian]

2018-2019 the atmosphere was in El Nino.