When will the first tropical wave be introduced? (Wed May 22)

[cycloneye]

Now that the main poll is up and of course is the 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Poll, the members can begin to post other polls about important questions and this one is about when will the first tropical wave be introduced officially to the surface charts. The poll will be open until March 31 at 4:58 PM EDT.

[Hurricane2022]

Voted for April 21 - 30

[cycloneye]

Those who have not voted yet, come and do so as the poll closes for voting on easter sunday at 4:58 PM EDT.

[cycloneye]

Any last minute votes? The poll closes at 4:58 PM EDT.

[cycloneye]

Poll has closed for voting with the option April 21-30 with the majority of votes. Let's see when the first wave will be formally introduced.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/KacperWx/status/1780263362695234029

[cycloneye]

There it is.

[AnnularCane]

There it is.

https://i.imgur.com/HBB9UuI.gif

Looks like a comet.

[Category5Kaiju]

Bruh, we're gonna get an MDR system that forms in May

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Bruh, we're gonna get an MDR system that forms in May

fr fr

edit: actually, on today's images it died out

[cycloneye]

The winner option with 9 votes for April 21-30 is in the running now.

[CyclonicFury]

It seems unlikely we will see TAFB officially mark a tropical wave in April, I have never seen them do that before May. However, the Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Alma 1990 in the Eastern Pacific says it developed from a tropical wave that exited the coast of Africa on April 29th.

[cycloneye]

The April 21-30 timeframe has passed and now May 1-10 is in the running.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Looks like May 1-10 will pass without an entrant as well. Slower-than-expected start to the season.

[cycloneye]

Maybe here it is?

[TheAustinMan]

Maybe here it is?
https://i.imgur.com/BQyHnR6.gif

I'm thinking we'll see our first analyzed tropical wave either today or this weekend south of Cabo Verde. A pouch of moisture associated with this disturbance will be pushing offshore today, and models are in good agreement that it'll be accompanied by the usual wavy wind pattern associated with tropical waves. It is currently modeled to reach the Lesser Antilles or northern South America either late next week or next weekend.

Source: TropicalTidbits

[cycloneye]

Finnally?

[cycloneye]

Maybe here it is?
https://i.imgur.com/BQyHnR6.gif

I'm thinking we'll see our first analyzed tropical wave either today or this weekend south of Cabo Verde. A pouch of moisture associated with this disturbance will be pushing offshore today, and models are in good agreement that it'll be accompanied by the usual wavy wind pattern associated with tropical waves. It is currently modeled to reach the Lesser Antilles or northern South America either late next week or next weekend.

Source: TropicalTidbits
https://i.imgur.com/9aZN94I.png

They did not pulled the trigger during the weekend. I thought, that area SSE of CV was going to be the one.

[AnnularCane]

It looks like a wave to me. Close enough.

[zzzh]

NHC TAFB has a standard criteria for identifying waves. If I remember correctly they use the advection of curvature vorticity to objectively analyze 700mb trough axes in data from EC/GFS to identify tropical waves.