2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[skyline385]

The C3S model may run has the same look as other climate models.

I imagine it's because C3S is just an ensemble model consisting of all the climate models and all climate models this month have had very similar solutions.

[Stratton23]

Man the gulf is really start to warm up fast

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1789012074858774705

[cycloneye]

The plot keeps thickening.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1789033295722016854

[StPeteMike]

:

The plot keeps thickening.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1789033295722016854

[Category5Kaiju]

The plot keeps thickening.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1789033295722016854

Wow. Just wow.

I don't really even see a signature for fish storms. Literally the bulk of the wet anomalies are blanketing everywhere in the western part of the basin where people live. Sheesh, this season really has the potential to be a memorable one I'm afraid.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1789003053791694927

[Stratton23]

Cycloneeye looks like the heat ridge may be centered more over the desert SW if im reading that correctly, that could lead to big trouble in the gulf during the season

[chaser1]

Here's a curious thought. I recall that over most of the past years there seemed to be some kind of inverse correlation between the Spring Tornado season, and the Summer/Fall Hurricane season. It seemed that following a very active tornado season, that upcoming Atlantic Hurricane season would tend to be less busy. Conversely, following a underactive Spring Tornado season, those Atlantic Hurricane seasons seemed to produce above average numbers. I do not know if there is adequate science to back that up or simply an incorrect perception. I bring this up simply because this present Tornado season seems quite active, yet so are everyone's projections for the upcoming Hurricane season as well.

[skyline385]

Here's a curious thought. I recall that over most of the past years there seemed to be some kind of inverse correlation between the Spring Tornado season, and the Summer/Fall Hurricane season. It seemed that following a very active tornado season, that upcoming Atlantic Hurricane season would tend to be less busy. Conversely, following a underactive Spring Tornado season, those Atlantic Hurricane seasons seemed to produce above average numbers. I do not know if there is adequate science to back that up or simply an incorrect perception. I bring this up simply because this present Tornado season seems quite active, yet so are everyone's projections for the upcoming Hurricane season as well.

Well, the most active tornado seasons (per a quick google) are:

2011: 1,894 tornadoes
2004: 1,820 tornadoes
2008: 1,685 tornadoes
2010: 1,543 tornadoes
2017: 1,522 tornadoes
1998: 1,440 tornadoes
2003: 1,374 tornadoes
1999: 1,364 tornadoes
1992: 1,312 tornadoes
2009: 1,305 tornadoes

Out of this, only 1992 and 2009 were below average. All of the others were above-average to hyperactive including big names like 2004, 2010 and 2017. So to me it looks like there is a direct relationship (if one exists) between hurricane season activity and tornado season.

[Category5Kaiju]

The way I understood it, tornado seasons are usually associated with warm Gulf of Mexico temperatures rather than Atlantic activity as a whole (because if that were the case then you probably wouldn't expect to see years like 1998, 2004, 2010, or 2017 up there).

It's also quite interesting to see that many of those high-tornado-frequency years are associated with seasons with powerful west-tracking Cape Verde storms (Georges, Isabel, Ivan, Ike, Irma to name a few). The big names that, you know, are frequently referenced by wx people.

[TheAustinMan]

Here's a curious thought. I recall that over most of the past years there seemed to be some kind of inverse correlation between the Spring Tornado season, and the Summer/Fall Hurricane season. It seemed that following a very active tornado season, that upcoming Atlantic Hurricane season would tend to be less busy. Conversely, following a underactive Spring Tornado season, those Atlantic Hurricane seasons seemed to produce above average numbers. I do not know if there is adequate science to back that up or simply an incorrect perception. I bring this up simply because this present Tornado season seems quite active, yet so are everyone's projections for the upcoming Hurricane season as well.

There might be a physical relationship between the kinds of upper-level patterns that affect storm tracks over the continental US in spring and the spring/summer patterns that affect the oceanic state for hurricanes, but I'm not convinced much insight can be gained from just the count of tornadoes. If we consider significant tornadoes (EF2+ or F2+), there is hardly a clear relationship between the number of those tornadoes in March/April/May and the Atlantic accumulated cyclone energy.

Source: Made in Excel. Tornado counts from Tornado Archive

[skyline385]

The way I understood it, tornado seasons are usually associated with warm Gulf of Mexico temperatures rather than Atlantic activity as a whole (because if that were the case then you probably wouldn't expect to see years like 1998, 2004, 2010, or 2017 up there).

GoM temperatures should partially influence tornado seasons since most large outbreaks require a healthy advection of Gulf moisture to the plains for supercells to start blowing up everywhere. A warmer Gulf would mean more moisture in the air and hence higher dewpoints being moved to the plains.

[USTropics]

Here's a curious thought. I recall that over most of the past years there seemed to be some kind of inverse correlation between the Spring Tornado season, and the Summer/Fall Hurricane season. It seemed that following a very active tornado season, that upcoming Atlantic Hurricane season would tend to be less busy. Conversely, following a underactive Spring Tornado season, those Atlantic Hurricane seasons seemed to produce above average numbers. I do not know if there is adequate science to back that up or simply an incorrect perception. I bring this up simply because this present Tornado season seems quite active, yet so are everyone's projections for the upcoming Hurricane season as well.

There might be a physical relationship between the kinds of upper-level patterns that affect storm tracks over the continental US in spring and the spring/summer patterns that affect the oceanic state for hurricanes, but I'm not convinced much insight can be gained from just the count of tornadoes. If we consider significant tornadoes (EF2+ or F2+), there is hardly a clear relationship between the number of those tornadoes in March/April/May and the Atlantic accumulated cyclone energy.

Source: Made in Excel. Tornado counts from Tornado Archive
https://i.imgur.com/soHbPs4.png

As always, excellent work on displaying the data. i would agree there isn't a connection between hurricanes and the quantity of tornadoes. The timescales are significantly different; supercells and MCCs have timescales of hours to ~1 day, hurricanes (especially from AEWs) are more multiweek timescales. I'm curious how the data looks like for transitioning ENSO states (particularly strong El Nino to La Nina by summer transitions). If I recall, 1982-83 and 1997-98 had significant tornadoes and closely resemble our current ENSO transition. I would plot the data, but only have mobile data and a tablet (did some 'tornado chasing' yesterday morning, aka walked out my apartment door here in Tallahassee). Currently there is still ~60-70K of us without power.

[chaser1]

Here's a curious thought. I recall that over most of the past years there seemed to be some kind of inverse correlation between the Spring Tornado season, and the Summer/Fall Hurricane season. It seemed that following a very active tornado season, that upcoming Atlantic Hurricane season would tend to be less busy. Conversely, following a underactive Spring Tornado season, those Atlantic Hurricane seasons seemed to produce above average numbers. I do not know if there is adequate science to back that up or simply an incorrect perception. I bring this up simply because this present Tornado season seems quite active, yet so are everyone's projections for the upcoming Hurricane season as well.

There might be a physical relationship between the kinds of upper-level patterns that affect storm tracks over the continental US in spring and the spring/summer patterns that affect the oceanic state for hurricanes, but I'm not convinced much insight can be gained from just the count of tornadoes. If we consider significant tornadoes (EF2+ or F2+), there is hardly a clear relationship between the number of those tornadoes in March/April/May and the Atlantic accumulated cyclone energy.

Source: Made in Excel. Tornado counts from Tornado Archive
https://i.imgur.com/soHbPs4.png

As always, excellent work on displaying the data. i would agree there isn't a connection between hurricanes and the quantity of tornadoes. The timescales are significantly different; supercells and MCCs have timescales of hours to ~1 day, hurricanes (especially from AEWs) are more multiweek timescales. I'm curious how the data looks like for transitioning ENSO states (particularly strong El Nino to La Nina by summer transitions). If I recall, 1982-83 and 1997-98 had significant tornadoes and closely resemble our current ENSO transition. I would plot the data, but only have mobile data and a tablet (did some 'tornado chasing' yesterday morning, aka walked out my apartment door here in Tallahassee). Currently there is still ~60-70K of us without power.

LOL, your Tornado chasing sounds akin to my Aurora chasing I plan on doing from the Orlando area this evening!! I'll bother to drive an hour to get away from all the ambient light, but that's it. Yeah, clearly my memory does NOT serve me right with regard to any inverse correlation between Hurricane & Tornado seasons. Thanks for the research and info - good stuff!

[cheezyWXguy]

Here's a curious thought. I recall that over most of the past years there seemed to be some kind of inverse correlation between the Spring Tornado season, and the Summer/Fall Hurricane season. It seemed that following a very active tornado season, that upcoming Atlantic Hurricane season would tend to be less busy. Conversely, following a underactive Spring Tornado season, those Atlantic Hurricane seasons seemed to produce above average numbers. I do not know if there is adequate science to back that up or simply an incorrect perception. I bring this up simply because this present Tornado season seems quite active, yet so are everyone's projections for the upcoming Hurricane season as well.

There might be a physical relationship between the kinds of upper-level patterns that affect storm tracks over the continental US in spring and the spring/summer patterns that affect the oceanic state for hurricanes, but I'm not convinced much insight can be gained from just the count of tornadoes. If we consider significant tornadoes (EF2+ or F2+), there is hardly a clear relationship between the number of those tornadoes in March/April/May and the Atlantic accumulated cyclone energy.

Source: Made in Excel. Tornado counts from Tornado Archive
https://i.imgur.com/soHbPs4.png

As always, excellent work on displaying the data. i would agree there isn't a connection between hurricanes and the quantity of tornadoes. The timescales are significantly different; supercells and MCCs have timescales of hours to ~1 day, hurricanes (especially from AEWs) are more multiweek timescales. I'm curious how the data looks like for transitioning ENSO states (particularly strong El Nino to La Nina by summer transitions). If I recall, 1982-83 and 1997-98 had significant tornadoes and closely resemble our current ENSO transition. I would plot the data, but only have mobile data and a tablet (did some 'tornado chasing' yesterday morning, aka walked out my apartment door here in Tallahassee). Currently there is still ~60-70K of us without power.

I also agree there isn’t a correlation between sigtors or tornado counts and ace, but I wonder if we may find a more useful correlation by looking at the respective qualities of tornado seasons and their subsequent hurricane seasons. For example, does a plains-heavy tornado season lead into a hurricane season with more landfalling storms than a Dixie alley season? What synoptic scale factors that drive tornadoes, or severe weather general, might later influence quality, quantity, and behavior of hurricanes? Would a higher frequency of negatively tilted conus troughs in spring carry over into more landfalls/recurvatures during hurricane season, or have some impact on late season Caribbean activity?

Just kind of spitballing questions here, and haven’t really looked into it before, so maybe some of yall already have answers for these

[chaser1]

I think it's a legit rabbit hole to pursue. If one thinks about it, a pattern of positive tilt or negative tilt short waves or simply the long wave pattern itself would seem to tip off potential upcoming tropical Cyclone tracks. Granted, patterns change but even a few bread crumbs might suggest a little bit of evidence to suggest where some storm tracks may occur.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Interesting to see the Atlantic Niño (and much of the South Atlantic north of 20S in general) cool off quite a bit as of late. Wondering if this could be heralding a more +AMM configuration once again. Remember last month much of the seasonal guidance adjusted to show a prominent Atlantic Niño/warmer SATL but for this month they've backed off on that idea slightly.

[Category5Kaiju]

I explicitly remember people last year looking at the Atlantic at this point in time (I admit, I was one of them) and breathing a sigh of relief that a strong El Nino was imminent.

Enter 2024.

[AnnularCane]

I explicitly remember people last year looking at the Atlantic at this point in time (I admit, I was one of them) and breathing a sigh of relief that a strong El Nino was imminent.

Enter 2024.

And I remember Mark Sudduth's videos at that time wondering if maybe, just maybe, the warm Atlantic waters might mean the season might be more active than expected.