Tropical Cyclone Formation Dates

Rainband · #2 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Feb 03, 2003 5:38 pm

Can you explain a little bit more about how you can do this, without giving away your research??? :roll:

:? Thanks

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Feb 03, 2003 5:48 pm

[quote][/quote]

Rainband · #4 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Feb 03, 2003 5:53 pm

Cool keep me and everyone else posted, that sounds like it's exciting. And someday If your right you may be famous :wink:

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Feb 03, 2003 8:03 pm

rainband wrote:And someday If your right you may be famous

LOL thats what I keep telling him, but really its true. Of course him and I were the first to use the MJO in our seasonal forecast and none of us are famous for that. :roll:

I'm doing research too, but on MUCH MORE exciting factors! Like the tropical upper tropospheric trough, the subtropical high, and all that GOOD stuff that's much more fun than the moon. Wouldn't you agree?(J/K)

Rainband · #6 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Feb 03, 2003 8:06 pm

Then you will be famous too!!!!! :wink:

Anonymous · #7 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Feb 08, 2003 1:12 pm

Since its the offseason in the Atlantic, I have decided to post updates of when our next good chance of tc formation is. The next formation date is February 8-9th. Can a tropical storm form before that time frame? Certainly. But what I am most interested in, is whether or not a storm will form within those 2 days or 1 or 2 days close to that date.

This should be an interesting thread if at least half of my forecasts are correct.

Its February 8th and we have development. 8) lol This needs to happen a lot more times before even I am convinced though.

http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/satshots/sh9203savs.jpg

WTXS21 PGTW 080630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 080621ZFEB2003//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 15.3S9 54.3E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 080530Z6 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.6S2 55.6E6. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1S7 55.7E7, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S2 55.6E6 APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTION
NEAR A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090630Z8.//

NNNN

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Feb 08, 2003 1:46 pm

The next formation date is February 23-24th. There is only one other guy that may be doing research on the subject and he isn't forecasting formation during that period. We will see...

#9 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Sat Feb 08, 2003 4:00 pm

with two major systems having formed earlier this week and still in progress?

Steve

Anonymous · #10 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Feb 08, 2003 5:34 pm

with two major systems having formed earlier this week and still in progress?

What? Those storms weren't included.

Anonymous · #11 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Feb 16, 2003 4:02 pm

I have been adding more factors to my theory. Therefore, I have discovered that there are more tropical cyclone formations dates than I originally thought. So I decided to go back and predict when tcs would form during the 2002 Atlantic season. There were more dates than the ones listed below. I chose the following dates out of 24, since there are 4 dates each month and that would be way too many. So I decided to use climatology as well.

June 17-18...no development....no development yet in season.
July 2-3...no development....no development yet in season.
August 1...tropical storm Bertha developed on August 4th.
August 28...tropical storm Dolly formed August 29th.
September 7...tropical depression forms that day.
September 14...Hurricane Isidore develops that day.
September 22-23...Hurricane Lili forms on September 21.
September 29...no development.
October 6...no development.
October 20...no development.

The recent changes to my theory have made my forecasts more accurate so far. I still need to do a lot more research...the forecasts will only get better. Hopefully I will be ready to come out with forecasts by next season. I may post new dates for tc formation around the globe soon.

Anonymous · #12 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Feb 16, 2003 7:53 pm

[quote][/quote]

Anonymous · #13 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Feb 17, 2003 10:25 pm

My previous post...

The next formation date is February 23-24th.

Actually, I didn't notice there was another date that comes before the 23rd-24th. the next date is February 19th. But I am still expecting development between the 23rd and 24th as well. Since these dates are so close together, I am not sure whats going to happen. We will see...

ColdFront77 · #14 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Feb 19, 2003 2:38 am

Interesting, we shall see what develops before the month of February is up.

Rainband · #15 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Feb 19, 2003 9:55 am

The 24th is ok by me, thats my sister's birthday....I hope this research pans out it sounds really interesting, as always thanks for the information

Anonymous · #16 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Feb 19, 2003 11:17 pm

Thanks CF and rainband. These are just a couple of a number of practice forecasts I have been making. Its early so I don't even expect many of them to verify too well just yet.

Anonymous · #17 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Feb 19, 2003 11:21 pm

Its hard to say whether or not development will occur this far out, but there is a possibility for tropical cyclone formation just off the NW side of the Australian coast. IF development were to occur, we COULD be talking about a rather significant cyclone bearing down on the general vicinity of Port Headland. Development depends on proximity to land more than any other factor at the present time. The BOM hasn't yet mentioned the possibility. But I am sure their outlooks will become a little more detailed in the coming days if there is still a threat.

Yesterday, I noticed that the factor that favored development today wasn't as strong as I previously thought (learn something new everyday lol). As a I posted in a reply above, the next formation date is the 23rd-24th. The low that may develop should emerge off of the NW coast of Australia on the 23rd. Development may begin on the 24th.

http://www.angelfire.com/la3/hurricanecentral/australia.jpg

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif[/quote]

Anonymous · #18 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Feb 21, 2003 12:21 am

BOM now mentions the low...

IDW10800
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 1:00pm WST on Friday the 21st of February 2003
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 129 EAST

There are no significant tropical lows evident at this stage, however there are
indications that on Sunday a low will move off the west Kimberley coast. This
low has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone early next week.

Anonymous · #19 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Feb 21, 2003 1:48 pm

Development is looking more and more like a certainty either on the 24th or 25th. Proximity to land is the key factor for both timing and development.

Anonymous · #20 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Feb 22, 2003 1:36 am

Tropical Cyclone Formation Dates

Tropical Cyclone Formation Dates

Lull in Activity?

Significant Development Possible NW Australia

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