Global Warming doesn't Blast UK w/ most Fall snow since WW2

[jinftl]

Very interesting info...the impact of the tree loss in terms of CO2 is something i have not read before, but makes very good sense. Undoubtedly, the large expanse of the hurricane force wind field over a highly forested area is the direct reason for so much forestry being lost during katrina...so the physical size of the hurricane's windfield and where it is impacting is crucial to the impact not only to humans and buildings, but also to forestry.

Even Katrina was influenced by extreme record hot temperatures...and unlike many say...this
evidence of energy-power-extremity can be directly linked
to some form of warming- note that the total damage was
far worse than Camille, the Labor Day Hurricane, or Andrew- this is forestry alone, which means
this occurence is not influenced by the fact of more people living on the water, because
the study was limited to trees- not homes, which obviously have increased since the 1930s.

Now it might be a natural cycle of heating, slightly exacerbated. So in that case an extreme event is due
to this cycle, exacerbated by anthropological factors.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ride that global warming truck right off the cliff. I never believed it as long as I live as data shows right now. There is no common sense in this debate. We don't have enough data to say one way or the other as of this moment. Do I think we have changed the climate some, YES. But not 6c over the next 92 years. Enjoy declaring co2 illigal. People co2 makes life possible on this planet...I don't understand it one ounce.



One more thing Katrina has very likely happened millions of times in earths history. Who's to say that we don't have these patterns. Lets keep a open mind.

[Aslkahuna]

There is no clear evidence that Katrina was effected in any way by GW. That's not to say that it couldn't have been but that the data is not there to prove it one way or another. Quite frankly, the Worldwide database on Tropical Cyclones is nowhere near adequate in terms of intensity and trends to make any clear judgement wrt the effects of GW on Tropical Cyclones. What is interesting, however, is that many GCMs suggest that the numbers of TC's globally will go down while average intensities will go up in a GW environment. One other thing that can't be denied is that we are currently in a warming hiatus which is probably due to changes in various sea-air oscillations to a colder mode and the tendency for these changes to support La Niña events rather than El Niño ones such as we saw in the 70's through 90's. The Enso cold phases do support such a hiatus and there is evidence that extended levels of low Solar activity do likewise. There's more to GW than the human factor and the sooner we realize this the sooner we can get a handle on the trends and properly prepare for the changes.

Steve

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is no clear evidence that Katrina was effected in any way by GW. That's not to say that it couldn't have been but that the data is not there to prove it one way or another. Quite frankly, the Worldwide database on Tropical Cyclones is nowhere near adequate in terms of intensity and trends to make any clear judgement wrt the effects of GW on Tropical Cyclones. What is interesting, however, is that many GCMs suggest that the numbers of TC's globally will go down while average intensities will go up in a GW environment. One other thing that can't be denied is that we are currently in a warming hiatus which is probably due to changes in various sea-air oscillations to a colder mode and the tendency for these changes to support La Niña events rather than El Niño ones such as we saw in the 70's through 90's. The Enso cold phases do support such a hiatus and there is evidence that extended levels of low Solar activity do likewise. There's more to GW than the human factor and the sooner we realize this the sooner we can get a handle on the trends and properly prepare for the changes.

Steve

Thank you for brining your knowledge into this discussion, you make a lot of sense. I agree with you strongly.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Ride that global warming truck right off the cliff. I never believed it as long as I live as data shows right now. There is no common sense in this debate. We don't have enough data to say one way or the other as of this moment. Do I think we have changed the climate some, YES. But not 6c over the next 92 years. Enjoy declaring co2 illigal. People co2 makes life possible on this planet...I don't understand it one ounce.



One more thing Katrina has very likely happened millions of times in earths history. Who's to say that we don't have these patterns. Lets keep a open mind.

This is clear, emotionally neutral evidence:

An entire intergovernmental panel on climate change with leading experts from around the world
creating a report on climate change is pretty strong evidence for climate change:
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/technical-papers ... apter5.pdf

Authors: Many are part of major research institutions:
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/technical-papers ... endix4.pdf

About Katrina- my own theory:
Water temperatures at the surface were over 100 F in some locations just north of where Katrina exploded.
Those water temperatures were records- it clearly was influenced by warming. 100 F water temperatures
are unprecedented. This is simple. 100 F + water temperatures are absolutely unprecedented. Secondly,
hotter SSTs due to Global Warming- 2005 was very hot- means stronger hurricanes. Katrina was strong.

[Aslkahuna]

Do you have the data supporting 38C SSTs in the area? Those would be phenomenal readings-should be noted that Katrina while intense and large is not necessarily anything unique-now Wilma, having the 6th lowest pressure ever recorded by recon worldwide is a unique storm.

Steve

[shibumi]

It really amazes me that anyone can take any single event, or even a hand full of them to argue any point when it comes to climate change....

The mere fact that we get weather reports from around the globe nowadays in no way tells us that there is more extreme weather happening...I defy anyone to prove the weather "today" is more extreme than in the past....it is an impossible thing to prove....the mere knowledge of what is going on in Timbuktu and so many other places around the globe gives us the sensation that wild weather is happening all of a sudden all over.....but it has always done so..especially taken over a longer span of time than one day, one season, or a few years....it is just being reported and heard about so much more...

Always remember that there is no such thing as "normal" weather...only averages..and the standard deviation that make up those averages is quite large, especially over continents....

No way there were SSTs near 100 degrees the year of Katrina....it makes no sense at all heat transfer wise without an extended period of air temps over 100 degrees which we did not have.

In fact the past few years have been some of the quietest tropical cyclone years globally in recorded history....you can't look at the intensity of one storm or even in one season in just the Atlantic basin and make such a conclusion.....

The climate models do not take into account water vapor variances (BY AND FAR the largest green house gas), solar activity, or cloud cover variances. The don't take into account any oceanic cycles which we know to exist....

How can anyone hang their hat on those climate models for the future?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Tampa Bay Hurricane - 100F water temperatures??? Can you please provide something to back that statement up with. I do not recall ever seeing water temperatures that warm during Katrina.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It really amazes me that anyone can take any single event, or even a hand full of them to argue any point when it comes to climate change....

The mere fact that we get weather reports from around the globe nowadays in no way tells us that there is more extreme weather happening...I defy anyone to prove the weather "today" is more extreme than in the past....it is an impossible thing to prove....the mere knowledge of what is going on in Timbuktu and so many other places around the globe gives us the sensation that wild weather is happening all of a sudden all over.....but it has always done so..especially taken over a longer span of time than one day, one season, or a few years....it is just being reported and heard about so much more...

Always remember that there is no such thing as "normal" weather...only averages..and the standard deviation that make up those averages is quite large, especially over continents....

No way there were SSTs near 100 degrees the year of Katrina....it makes no sense at all heat transfer wise without an extended period of air temps over 100 degrees which we did not have.

In fact the past few years have been some of the quietest tropical cyclone years globally in recorded history....you can't look at the intensity of one storm or even in one season in just the Atlantic basin and make such a conclusion.....

The climate models do not take into account water vapor variances (BY AND FAR the largest green house gas), solar activity, or cloud cover variances. The don't take into account any oceanic cycles which we know to exist....

How can anyone hang their hat on those climate models for the future?

Katrina was a significant "single event"

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/egof_tmap.html
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/view_text_file ... al/stdmet/
2005 07 21 18 00 32 0.9 2.3 0.45 5.26 4.90 155 1018.9 29.2 32.1 25.3 99.0 99.00

32 C = 90 F

2005 08 21 21 00 174 2.8 3.7 0.21 6.25 3.53 152 1013.5 31.0 33.1 25.9 99.0 99.00

33.1 C = 91.6 = 92 F

http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/avhrr/gm/ ... _multi.png
WAY OVER 32 C, WAY over 90 F.
http://www.mercator-ocean.fr/tools/popu ... atrina.gif
Well over 32 C again.

The 100 F SST info was Pre-Katrina and was measured in LA.
ERROR 100 F INFO NOT FOUND

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

NASA IMAGE: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... atrina.jpg

35 C = 95 F
Dark red near LA > 95 F SST

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

see below.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I was wrong about GW. It is just a cycle. Whoops. Matt you win congrats
on sticking to your side

[Extremeweatherguy]

NASA IMAGE: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... atrina.jpg

35 C = 95 F
Dark red near LA > 95 F SST

Except for that extremely miniscule dot right near the immediate central LA coast, I do not see anything even close to 35C water in the vicinity of Katrina. Most of the water in the storm's immediate area is closer to 30C (86F), which is actually quite normal for late August in the Gulf of Mexico.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yea I give up it was not GW.

[Sanibel]

The Earth is not warming, despite what the chicken littles are telling the masses.

Isn't this just flat out denial of the scientific evidence showing rising global temperatures?

[Ed Mahmoud]

The Earth is not warming, despite what the chicken littles are telling the masses.

Isn't this just flat out denial of the scientific evidence showing rising global temperatures?

Hasn't global warming been on a ten year vacation?

[Sanibel]

Hasn't global warming been on a ten year vacation?

We'll have to ask Greenland, which is still melting faster than expected.

[x-y-no]

The Earth is not warming, despite what the chicken littles are telling the masses.

Isn't this just flat out denial of the scientific evidence showing rising global temperatures?

Hasn't global warming been on a ten year vacation?

Um, no it hasn't.

[Ed Mahmoud]

That isn't what I've been reading at sites like IceCap.us, but I got in enough trouble arguing with you as a moderator, and I want to be around on S2K in case we get another Christmas snow miracle here in Southeast Texas.



OT (not on global warming)- does the promotion come with a raise?

[x-y-no]

That isn't what I've been reading at sites like IceCap.us, but I got in enough trouble arguing with you as a moderator, and I want to be around on S2K in case we get another Christmas snow miracle here in Southeast Texas.

If you're interested in a discussion of why that claim is wrong, you can find one here:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar ... /#more-611

And argument is fine, so long as it's kept in the realm of fact as opposed to editorial comment about motives.

OT (not on global warming)- does the promotion come with a raise?

Nope. Just more work.