STORM2K

El Nino in February is not going away without a fight, while the northern US enjoys much warmer than average temps FL will be somewhat stormy and much cooler than average, completely the opposite to Feb of last year when FL was 5-10 degrees above average for the month.

Looking like parts of Florida (especially Daytona, Smyrna, and points south along the east coast) might get a touch of a little Florida Nor'easter between Sunday, Monday and Tuesday! Bring it on Winter Gods Vanquish all memories of our brutal heat & humidity that we otherwise must endure most of the year. The forecast does not explicitly suggest it but I think that Monday and/or Tuesday may well be one of those "snow days" (low capped showers, breezy, very low fog/cloud deck, but of course NO actual snow LOL) for sections of the E. Coast from Jax south, but possibly some W Coast regions as well. I could see a few isolated stations along the coast reporting 2"-4" of precip. I think there's a decent chance of some localized destructive onshore beach erosion as well.

chaser1 wrote:Looking like parts of Florida (especially Daytona, Smyrna, and points south along the east coast) might get a touch of a little Florida Nor'easter between Sunday, Monday and Tuesday! Bring it on Winter Gods Vanquish all memories of our brutal heat & humidity that we otherwise must endure most of the year. The forecast does not explicitly suggest it but I think that Monday and/or Tuesday may well be one of those "snow days" (low capped showers, breezy, very low fog/cloud deck, but of course NO actual snow LOL) for sections of the E. Coast from Jax south, but possibly some W Coast regions as well. I could see a few isolated stations along the coast reporting 2"-4" of precip. I think there's a decent chance of some localized destructive onshore beach erosion as well.

East coast of FL beaches north of the gold coast can't get a break from the beach erosion.

I thought this week we were going to see some upper 30s along calmer winds at night in my area thus see some frost but absolutely nothing. Temps didn't get any lower than the mid 40s.
Looking at the long range I don't see any possibilities of frosty nights.
Very strange to go a whole winter without at least one frosty night. Back in the late 2000s into the early 2010s after I moved to the Orlando area it was common scene every winter in my more rural area of Orlando.

NDG wrote:I thought this week we were going to see some upper 30s along calmer winds at night in my area thus see some frost but absolutely nothing. Temps didn't get any lower than the mid 40s.
Looking at the long range I don't see any possibilities of frosty nights.
Very strange to go a whole winter without at least one frosty night. Back in the late 2000s into the early 2010s after I moved to the Orlando area it was common scene every winter in my more rural area of Orlando.

So true. I was recently thinking the same thing. I'm a more recent resident to the Orlando area then yourself but I have clear memories of awe regarding how cold several Winter nighttime lows for the Orlando area would drop down to each year. Mid to upper 30's seemed common. Heck, we'd typically get 1-2 nights that would flirt with upper 30's ourselves down south in Kendall (S. Miami) each year. It seems to me that those particularly cold events are quite a bit more elusive for at least the southern 2/3's of Florida Understandably, that's to be expected for our current boyish ENSO pattern. In fact, I kind of prefer this broader and more pronounced "cool and wet" pattern over the occasional Arctic blast resulting in colder but short-lived cold fronts due to high pressure quickly tilting our northerly winds to a more eastward component. At least this feels like an honest respite from our sweltering heat for most of the year.

Upper 30's is as low as it got here this winter. There was never a threat of a freeze.. even model freezes were sparse. But we did have quite a bit of below normal temps and chilly weather. It does seem to be getting warmer...and I am all for it. Bring the warmth...we're already covered in pollen..

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1753895817562169830

 https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/1754110848539472182

cycloneye wrote:

The rare tornado watch for sofla.

Was reading miami weather discussion for Monday for S. Fl. The 500mb Temps will be -18c--20c. That amazing. Norm around -10c. I know other ingredients have to come together but sounds like severe weather for some.

Well, it looks like we can pretty much write the main story of Florida Winter 2023-24. Wetter and cloudier than normal, not significantly hot with long periods of SW Atlantic ridge, not significantly cold with "Arctic blasts." Doesn't appear to be anything too notable going into March, either way.

Patrick99 wrote:Well, it looks like we can pretty much write the main story of Florida Winter 2023-24. Wetter and cloudier than normal, not significantly hot with long periods of SW Atlantic ridge, not significantly cold with "Arctic blasts." Doesn't appear to be anything too notable going into March, either way.

Probably our most pronounced El Nino since 1997-98 although not as intense as that one or 1982-83. The active southern stream is set to give us another round of lousy weather with the weekend being a near total washout for West Central Florida at least.

Patrick99 wrote:Well, it looks like we can pretty much write the main story of Florida Winter 2023-24. Wetter and cloudier than normal, not significantly hot with long periods of SW Atlantic ridge, not significantly cold with "Arctic blasts." Doesn't appear to be anything too notable going into March, either way.

Idk Patrick, I suppose perspective plays into it to a degree. I agree with you wholeheartedly about this Florida Winter being cloudier and wetter, but I found this Winter to be the chilliest overall that I remember here in the Orlando area. You're spot on regarding Arctic blasts and severe cold - there was none. Regardless, I primarily work outdoors and to me this Central Florida Winter has displayed the most consistently "mild to cool" afternoon high Temps that I can recall. Most Winters here seem to have SO many more Peaks & valleys like 2-3 cold days & nights followed by several days of upper 70's-mid 80's. I could be wrong but I think my area has had more nights in the 40's & 50's then prior years. Same for afternoon highs. Seems to me like there's been a crazy number of days with afternoon highs in the 60's or barely reaching 72. At least for me, this season has been a big-time deviation from the long long Spring, Summer & Fall torch temperatures and miserably humid conditions that I've become accustomed too.


Having said all that though, I realize that S. Florida Temps have been way more mild. Still, I hardly recall Miami getting any chunks of outright very warm days this season either - just mostly mild.

HurricaneBelle wrote:

Patrick99 wrote:Well, it looks like we can pretty much write the main story of Florida Winter 2023-24. Wetter and cloudier than normal, not significantly hot with long periods of SW Atlantic ridge, not significantly cold with "Arctic blasts." Doesn't appear to be anything too notable going into March, either way.

Probably our most pronounced El Nino since 1997-98 although not as intense as that one or 1982-83. The active southern stream is set to give us another round of lousy weather with the weekend being a near total washout for West Central Florida at least.

Oh yes it will be! Bring it on! Can you tell that I love any kind of deviation from hot & dry The National Weather Service needs to come up with yet one more type of Weather Alert:
"Dank Weather Warning issued for the following counties....."

Definitely NOT Orlando Chamber of Commerce weather but I couldn't be happier 59° dark grey with an unending light rain, and an expected temperature fluctuation tonight & tomorrow of maybe 4 or 5 degrees F.

Perhaps the equivalent to what would be considered "warm winter weather" for N. Michigan or New England??

Quite a bit of rainfall for parts of SE Florida today, this low has overpeformed in my locale, wasn’t expecting this much rain and there has even been training of cells today. Gale warning for the Atlantic coastal waters, models trending stronger with the wind tomorrow.

Winter cold front on El nino steroids. Most of this weather was predicted here in ft lauderdale today. Went to Miami boat show yesterday. Was warm around 83. Did little sweat while walking. Today probably a wash out as is Daytona 500.. 50s for lows almost all week. Free ac

.... followed by yet, another (much dryer) front around end of week. Seems like this has been quite an extended generally cool period of time. Way more consistently cool then I can recall for Central Florida. I'm betting on it more or less continuing into March.

The duration of the cool weather this year is awesome. Been many years since had a winter like this. And as you said gonna last through weekend. Keep it coming. Cause once it hits 90 there's no turning back.