STORM2K

jlauderdal wrote:Interesting setup for SE Florida tonight as the better setup is clearly to the North but models have improved the dynamics to the south, we saw what happened Saturday, pushing 80 at the surface so we might get something going ahead of the squall line, NWS mentions the cap but maybe we can break it, regardless the atmosphere is really charged up from Florida back to the Midwest.

How did it go for you? I went to bed last night with nothing but a quite thin, broken line of showers showing up on the radar, approaching. I think I heard some very, very brief wind-driven rain slapping against the window. It couldn't have been for that long.

Patrick99 wrote:

NDG wrote:Watching the Arctic air forecasted to come down into the NW and central US this weekend into early next week with temperatures forecasted to get into the deep freeze in the central and western gulf coast states.
Will the subtropical jet save central FL from at least a light freeze? The GFS thinks so but the Euro, ICON and CMC (not sure why I am including this cold biased model) show possible light freeze. This bear watching.

It sure looks like it. Watching from run to run, it seems that once the coldest air moving south reaches a certain latitude, it gets quickly shunted off to the east and can deliver the peninsula only a brief glancing blow.

Now both the Euro and GFS show that any possible freeze for central FL for the following weekend, but being still 10 days out I am not putting too much stock into it unless they become very consistent on that solution.

Central Florida is now in a slight risk for Friday...an upgrade from prior outlooks that kept the slight zone confined to north Florida

Looks like severe threat has down trended but upcoming cold has up trended

Yikes Euro with a freeze down into Central Florida and even parts of SW Florida next weekend. Interesting that the freeze is all the way to the coast too.

Looks like Miami International Airport will get its first night this winter under 50 degrees next weekend (small chance it could be Thursday morning, but not likely)

00Z Euro animation for this coming week. Going with well below normal temps for Florida with a freeze still into West-Central Florida next weekend:

Anything past 5 days just bears watching but models are becoming more consistent of a possible freeze in parts of central FL next weekend, but should be a quick blast of cold air next weekend as the NAO and AO are going back up to positive. Good thing for the FL Peninsula that the current Arctic blast in the US is occurring during a slightly negative PNA otherwise Wednesday's and Thursday low temps would had been as low as upper 20s along the I-4 corridor.

Edit: weird that the usual cold biased CMC is not showing freezing temps for central FL any more for next weekend but I guess is because it shows a more east progressing trough across the eastern US which falls along the NAO and AO going back up positive by then.

We're probably going to have a protracted period of below normal temps but without a substantial freeze. That's how these events tend to unfold. Modeled freezes are like model canes...there's a lot of false alarms. Nevertheless...it's cold, winter sux and I want my southeast ridge torch back!

psyclone wrote:Nevertheless...it's cold, winter sux and I want my southeast ridge torch back!

I just want to be able to open the windows and not have to use the heat or the AC.

It looks like both GFS and Euro are already starting to trend away from a freeze along the I-4 corridor for next Sunday morning, but too early to say, plenty of time to trend back to a freeze.

Patrick99 wrote:

jlauderdal wrote:Interesting setup for SE Florida tonight as the better setup is clearly to the North but models have improved the dynamics to the south, we saw what happened Saturday, pushing 80 at the surface so we might get something going ahead of the squall line, NWS mentions the cap but maybe we can break it, regardless the atmosphere is really charged up from Florida back to the Midwest.

How did it go for you? I went to bed last night with nothing but a quite thin, broken line of showers showing up on the radar, approaching. I think I heard some very, very brief wind-driven rain slapping against the window. It couldn't have been for that long.

It was a non-event.

We are really lucking out so far with extreme cold close by...but so far not coming this way in full force. Single digit lows and snow in northern Bama...

psyclone wrote:We are really lucking out so far with extreme cold close by...but so far not coming this way in full force. Single digit lows and snow in northern Bama...

We really lucked out that the pattern was of a -PNA during the past few days and now changing from a -NAO to positive as I type this otherwise the core of the next Arctic air would had come straight for the FL Península coming down this weekend instead we’re just getting side brushed by it. Incredible that the suburbs of Nashville were down to -10° F yesterday morning and parts of FL Panhandle were in the upper teens with daytime highs only in the mid 30s the day before.

We'd better enjoy this weekend's quick little cool down, because it looks like nothing even close through 384 hours. Really consistent run to run too. Looks like we are getting a highly positive PNA (good) but paired with a highly positive NAO (poor) lol

Seeing the incoming torch at long last is great. I am looking forward to a return to carefree warmth...and sun.. hopefully it runs the clock out on winter

Woke up to 40°, wind chill advisory, and real feel temperature of 32° in Tampa Bay area this morning.

Coldest Miami International Airport Temperatures so far this winter:

59°F morning of November 29
57°F morning of December 7
59°F morning of December 12
55°F morning of December 19
57°F morning of December 20
59°F morning of December 28
57°F morning of December 30
54°F morning of December 31
52°F morning of January 1
56°F morning of January 2
55°F morning of January 3
58°F morning of January 4
57°F morning of January 20
52°F morning of January 21

Man, it looks like so far this winter, we've been avoiding the cold.
Haven't even gotten in the 40s once at the airport.

But it looks like we'll have some chances in the last few weeks of February, since we have a consistent few weeks of well-below average temperature anomalies.


https://i.imgur.com/WCG5Ewd.png


https://i.imgur.com/Qof4Euw.png


https://i.imgur.com/IbPXlnz.png


https://i.imgur.com/6QxQ6jH.png

Looks like a return to chilly...but not freezing...temps on the way.

I like that the high is not gonna move off the coast for like 3 days keeping me cool with 50's at night most of the week. Free AC!