STORM2K

mid-40s in the Tampa Bay area this morning, left the heat off last night and woke up to 67 in the house

Looks like a prolonged stretch of below normal temps incoming

The expected lows been rising to the point that now KMIA does not expect to see a day below 50 degrees F in the next week.

Good thing there is no Arctic air in Canada for the current deep mid level trough to drag down to FL, I’m sure there would have been plenty of freezing temps in central and parts of S FL.

El Nino in full swing now with 3 frontal systems with weather coming through in 6 days. The associated lows will likely move through the Panhandle and slightly north of there so nothing like the mid-December event.

Definitely a full El Nino pattern in place since at least the second half of November. The last Super El Nino event of winter '15/'16, November & December of '15 was very inactive compared to the current one, it was later in January '16 that the pattern finally resembled a +ENSO one.

Tick tock - SFL "winter" is now on the clock. A lot of more interesting changeable weather thanks to El Nino, but not really anything too impressive on the horizon either. Some people in the US will be getting cold, but it kinda looks like the Pacific troughing along with some SW Atlantic/Caribbean ridging are going to scuttle more impressive cold for SFL, through mid-January at least.

As I recall, the constant parade of cutters across the country is not really a pattern that brings a ton of cold air to Florida, even if there is a -NAO. I think we largely miss out on this upcoming arctic outbreak - it doesn't look as if the polar vortex is digging in the right spot for that.

Patrick99 wrote:Tick tock - SFL "winter" is now on the clock. A lot of more interesting changeable weather thanks to El Nino, but not really anything too impressive on the horizon either. Some people in the US will be getting cold, but it kinda looks like the Pacific troughing along with some SW Atlantic/Caribbean ridging are going to scuttle more impressive cold for SFL, through mid-January at least.

As I recall, the constant parade of cutters across the country is not really a pattern that brings a ton of cold air to Florida, even if there is a -NAO. I think we largely miss out on this upcoming arctic outbreak - it doesn't look as if the polar vortex is digging in the right spot for that.

The -PNA pattern is going to save FL from the Arctic blast coming down into the US despite the -NAO

West coast of FL needs to watch out for those cells that are moving in this morning along the strong squall line, some rotation with some of them. Sounding this morning from Ruskin shows lots of shear for rotation with a 50 knot low level jet, winds along the coast already gusting over 40 mph.

We really cashed a qpf ticket this morning. This storm coming up Tuesday looks like it could exceed the mid December system...gradient wind, storm coastal flooding and a substantial svr risk including tornadoes appears possible

Is everyone in Fort Lauderdale alright?

 https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/1743777416357593544




 https://twitter.com/tornadicwonder/status/1743783051040268657

psyclone wrote:We really cashed a qpf ticket this morning. This storm coming up Tuesday looks like it could exceed the mid December system...gradient wind, storm coastal flooding and a substantial svr risk including tornadoes appears possible

The hourly NWS wind forecast for Tuesday for me in Clearwater:



Color me skeptical that we'll have sustained 30G48 winds for 6-8 hours but we'll see.

Iceresistance wrote:Is everyone in Fort Lauderdale alright?

 https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/1743777416357593544




 https://twitter.com/tornadicwonder/status/1743783051040268657

There was damage south of me, it was a very impressive tornado for sofla.

Latest Nam3k future radar suggests some bowing segments of the line near Tampa Bay. Would not be good if it verifies.
[imgur][/imgur]

Seems like there's some solid strong winds not too far above the surface. I'm fairly confident that there will be scattered local reports of straight-line wind gusts of 45mph - 55 mph between Sarasota and Clearwater and across Central Fla prior to the line thinning out as upper-level support slowly wanes. I'd expect a few (radar depicted) tornado warnings to be hoisted as well for Central and East Coast Central Fla. but those commonly do not materialize. Wouldn't surprise me though if a couple nice waterspouts or tornadic funnels were spotted as the line rapidly approaches you W. Coast folks though. Jeez, I hated living down in S. Fla years ago when there'd be forecasted prefrontal strong squall lines expected. It just seemed that nearly every time a solid line of cells were approaching, amazingly the line would magically "thin out" or simply weaken, just for newly developed cells to redevelop and explode immediately offshore Miami, Ft. Lauderdale and W. Palm. Might not be a bad idea to run on out and grab any outside glass patio furniture or umbrellas for the day though.

Interesting setup for SE Florida tonight as the better setup is clearly to the North but models have improved the dynamics to the south, we saw what happened Saturday, pushing 80 at the surface so we might get something going ahead of the squall line, NWS mentions the cap but maybe we can break it, regardless the atmosphere is really charged up from Florida back to the Midwest.

chaser1 wrote:Seems like there's some solid strong winds not too far above the surface. I'm fairly confident that there will be scattered local reports of straight-line wind gusts of 45mph - 55 mph between Sarasota and Clearwater and across Central Fla prior to the line thinning out as upper-level support slowly wanes. I'd expect a few (radar depicted) tornado warnings to be hoisted as well for Central and East Coast Central Fla. but those commonly do not materialize. Wouldn't surprise me though if a couple nice waterspouts or tornadic funnels were spotted as the line rapidly approaches you W. Coast folks though. Jeez, I hated living down in S. Fla years ago when there'd be forecasted prefrontal strong squall lines expected. It just seemed that nearly every time a solid line of cells were approaching, amazingly the line would magically "thin out" or simply weaken, just for newly developed cells to redevelop and explode immediately offshore Miami, Ft. Lauderdale and W. Palm. Might not be a bad idea to run on out and grab any outside glass patio furniture or umbrellas for the day though.

It is tough to get great dynamics this far south in the winter but it's an el nino year and this will be our third post-hurricane event this season.

Nature coast and west central peninsula about to get slammed. We have been gusting to near 50 around here for hours. Great day for weather watching

Watching the Arctic air forecasted to come down into the NW and central US this weekend into early next week with temperatures forecasted to get into the deep freeze in the central and western gulf coast states.
Will the subtropical jet save central FL from at least a light freeze? The GFS thinks so but the Euro, ICON and CMC (not sure why I am including this cold biased model) show possible light freeze. This bear watching.

NDG wrote:Watching the Arctic air forecasted to come down into the NW and central US this weekend into early next week with temperatures forecasted to get into the deep freeze in the central and western gulf coast states.
Will the subtropical jet save central FL from at least a light freeze? The GFS thinks so but the Euro, ICON and CMC (not sure why I am including this cold biased model) show possible light freeze. This bear watching.

It sure looks like it. Watching from run to run, it seems that once the coldest air moving south reaches a certain latitude, it gets quickly shunted off to the east and can deliver the peninsula only a brief glancing blow.