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Brent wrote:Tbh I don't know what to believe anymore. We were told we would have a good winter we were told after the eclipse it would be stormy. It's rained like 5 drops here total so no I don't believe anything about Monday even much less the summer at this point. I mean I'm hoping for the best with the summer but they've been wrong about everything this year
Brent wrote:Tbh I don't know what to believe anymore. We were told we would have a good winter we were told after the eclipse it would be stormy. It's rained like 5 drops here total so no I don't believe anything about Monday even much less the summer at this point. I mean I'm hoping for the best with the summer but they've been wrong about everything this year
HockeyTx82 wrote:Has anyone mentioned the severe potential next Monday, the 15th..... yikes! Some strong wording.
cstrunk wrote:Ended up with 5.93" total from Monday evening through yesterday afternoon. Added another 0.87" this morning.
Could get another 1-2" this afternoon as the low swings by.
bubba hotep wrote:18z GFS keeps the wet pattern going
https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2024041018/384/qpf_acc-imp.us_sc.png
Iceresistance wrote:Okay, this is actually starting to get concerning
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/SZHtM.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/SZHtM.gif
SPC has some VERY STRONG wording for this...Significant severe weather episode possible late afternoon and
evening on Monday...
A mid/upper low over the central CA vicinity at 12Z Sunday should
evolve into an open wave as it ejects across the Southwest and into
the central Great Plains by around Tuesday morning. As it crosses
the Rockies onto the High Plains, the tropospheric flow field will
amplify with substantial lee cyclogenesis in the central High Plains
on Monday afternoon. While a moderate amount of spread persists
across respective ensemble systems, 00Z deterministic runs have
converged towards greater agreement with the aforementioned scenario
through D5, with progressively lower predictability in D6-8.
With about 3 days of persistent low-level moisture modification from
the western Gulf beneath an extensive elevated mixed layer, the
northern extent of mid 60s surface dew points should reach into most
of OK east of the dryline by Monday afternoon. Late afternoon
thunderstorm initiation along the dryline appears probable in the
eastern TX Panhandle/western north TX to western OK vicinity, within
a kinematic and thermodynamic profile favorable for strong
supercells. Convective development will blossom both south and
especially north extent during the evening across the central and
southern Great Plains. For this outlook, have expanded the 30
percent area to highlight the greater spatial confidence in a
substantial severe weather episode.
Despite increasing predictability concerns and the impact of prior
day convection, very strong flow fields should persist into at least
the first half of D6/Tuesday as a deep surface cyclone pivots
northeast towards the Upper MS Valley vicinity. While instability
will be weaker compared to Monday, organized severe potential is
evident within an arc from a portion of the Upper MS Valley to the
Mid-South.
Iceresistance wrote:Okay, this is actually starting to get concerning
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/SZHtM.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/SZHtM.gif
SPC has some VERY STRONG wording for this...Significant severe weather episode possible late afternoon and
evening on Monday...
A mid/upper low over the central CA vicinity at 12Z Sunday should
evolve into an open wave as it ejects across the Southwest and into
the central Great Plains by around Tuesday morning. As it crosses
the Rockies onto the High Plains, the tropospheric flow field will
amplify with substantial lee cyclogenesis in the central High Plains
on Monday afternoon. While a moderate amount of spread persists
across respective ensemble systems, 00Z deterministic runs have
converged towards greater agreement with the aforementioned scenario
through D5, with progressively lower predictability in D6-8.
With about 3 days of persistent low-level moisture modification from
the western Gulf beneath an extensive elevated mixed layer, the
northern extent of mid 60s surface dew points should reach into most
of OK east of the dryline by Monday afternoon. Late afternoon
thunderstorm initiation along the dryline appears probable in the
eastern TX Panhandle/western north TX to western OK vicinity, within
a kinematic and thermodynamic profile favorable for strong
supercells. Convective development will blossom both south and
especially north extent during the evening across the central and
southern Great Plains. For this outlook, have expanded the 30
percent area to highlight the greater spatial confidence in a
substantial severe weather episode.
Despite increasing predictability concerns and the impact of prior
day convection, very strong flow fields should persist into at least
the first half of D6/Tuesday as a deep surface cyclone pivots
northeast towards the Upper MS Valley vicinity. While instability
will be weaker compared to Monday, organized severe potential is
evident within an arc from a portion of the Upper MS Valley to the
Mid-South.
there's been so much model hype lately and nothing ever pans out Cpv17 wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Okay, this is actually starting to get concerning
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/SZHtM.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/SZHtM.gif
SPC has some VERY STRONG wording for this...Significant severe weather episode possible late afternoon and
evening on Monday...
A mid/upper low over the central CA vicinity at 12Z Sunday should
evolve into an open wave as it ejects across the Southwest and into
the central Great Plains by around Tuesday morning. As it crosses
the Rockies onto the High Plains, the tropospheric flow field will
amplify with substantial lee cyclogenesis in the central High Plains
on Monday afternoon. While a moderate amount of spread persists
across respective ensemble systems, 00Z deterministic runs have
converged towards greater agreement with the aforementioned scenario
through D5, with progressively lower predictability in D6-8.
With about 3 days of persistent low-level moisture modification from
the western Gulf beneath an extensive elevated mixed layer, the
northern extent of mid 60s surface dew points should reach into most
of OK east of the dryline by Monday afternoon. Late afternoon
thunderstorm initiation along the dryline appears probable in the
eastern TX Panhandle/western north TX to western OK vicinity, within
a kinematic and thermodynamic profile favorable for strong
supercells. Convective development will blossom both south and
especially north extent during the evening across the central and
southern Great Plains. For this outlook, have expanded the 30
percent area to highlight the greater spatial confidence in a
substantial severe weather episode.
Despite increasing predictability concerns and the impact of prior
day convection, very strong flow fields should persist into at least
the first half of D6/Tuesday as a deep surface cyclone pivots
northeast towards the Upper MS Valley vicinity. While instability
will be weaker compared to Monday, organized severe potential is
evident within an arc from a portion of the Upper MS Valley to the
Mid-South.
Looks like the worse of it might be west of you.