STORM2K

Geez, tomorrow could be a big day for MS. Looks to be very high tornado potential.

Nothing dangerous so far where I am, but I have noticed an unusually high number of warned storms outside watch areas the last 24 hours. SPC dropping the ball a little bit?

The smallest April daily rainfall record at DFW (0.77") goes by the wayside.

0.79" is the new smallest April daily rainfall record. Everything else in April is at least 1.00". Odd anomaly.

txtwister78 wrote:Instability values are cooking today over South-Central Texas as we approach 90 degrees with dewpoints in the 70's. Could be an active evening across the region. Key is where do storms fire across the San Antonio metro. All severe hazards including the threat for very large hail possible with this setup in place.

Yep it looks like we could see some explosive thunderstorm development in SA later this evening. Interesting times ahead.

My son lives in Ventress, Louisiana
I'm concerned for him and others out there.

Look at this hook!


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/SZbev.png

Seems like a big whiff so far on rain in DFW.

Gotwood wrote:Seems like a big whiff so far on rain in DFW.

Definitely a BIG miss for DFW area. SE Texas right along front was spot on for flooding. The Panhandle looks to be cashing in on the higher placed disturbance, with NTX getting barely anything in the middle. Got a nice shower this afternoon at house, but in DT FTW it was cloudy and dry.

 https://x.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1777872704168927690

txtwister78 wrote: https://x.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1777872704168927690

Line of storms is quickly unzipping all the way down to Mexico...you love to see it! Farther west than models had development too.

South Texas Storms wrote:

txtwister78 wrote: https://x.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1777872704168927690

Line of storms is quickly unzipping all the way down to Mexico...you love to see it! Farther west than models had development too.

Absolutely. Good soaking rainfall ongoing.

Gotwood wrote:Seems like a big whiff so far on rain in DFW.

Same up here so far... Haven't even washed the gunk off my car from the eclipse in Arkansas

Had a nice quick storm like an hour or so ago but it weakened pretty quickly once it got east of here. Overall was expecting a little more rain today

Strongest Day 6 wording I've seen from SPC in a very long time...

April 15 has some serious potential. Luckily it's still at the range where it can downtrend but my goodness

Denton and Collin County got a lot, but Tarrant southwest got the shaft. Hopefully we get a good amount today for the final round.

Lakes to the west have only a month or so to try to get some rain before summer hits if Larry Cosgrove is right.

Ended up with 5.93" total from Monday evening through yesterday afternoon. Added another 0.87" this morning.

Could get another 1-2" this afternoon as the low swings by.

rwfromkansas wrote:Denton and Collin County got a lot, but Tarrant southwest got the shaft. Hopefully we get a good amount today for the final round.

Lakes to the west have only a month or so to try to get some rain before summer hits if Larry Cosgrove is right.

I am slightly leaning away from the hot summers of the past 2. Nino-Nina switches are bearable summers and every once in awhile extremely wet/cool. 1973 and 2007 for example. Especially when the Nina doesn't take off right away and Nino lag effects holds on. SOI hasn't responded to the Nina yet. Strangely last year was a dry Nino year like 1973 and 2006.

Ntxw wrote:

rwfromkansas wrote:Denton and Collin County got a lot, but Tarrant southwest got the shaft. Hopefully we get a good amount today for the final round.

Lakes to the west have only a month or so to try to get some rain before summer hits if Larry Cosgrove is right.

I am slightly leaning away from the hot summers of the past 2. Nino-Nina switches are bearable summers and every once in awhile extremely wet/cool. 1973 and 2007 for example. Especially when the Nina doesn't take off right away and Nino lag effects holds on. SOI hasn't responded to the Nina yet. Strangely last year was a dry Nino year like 1973 and 2006.

Yeah, I was assuming a more bearable summer, but he is pretty aggressive. But, he was wrong about the end of winter. Love the guy, but he gets it wrong like anybody else sometimes.

rwfromkansas wrote:

Ntxw wrote:

rwfromkansas wrote:Denton and Collin County got a lot, but Tarrant southwest got the shaft. Hopefully we get a good amount today for the final round.

Lakes to the west have only a month or so to try to get some rain before summer hits if Larry Cosgrove is right.

I am slightly leaning away from the hot summers of the past 2. Nino-Nina switches are bearable summers and every once in awhile extremely wet/cool. 1973 and 2007 for example. Especially when the Nina doesn't take off right away and Nino lag effects holds on. SOI hasn't responded to the Nina yet. Strangely last year was a dry Nino year like 1973 and 2006.

Yeah, I was assuming a more bearable summer, but he is pretty aggressive. But, he was wrong about the end of winter. Love the guy, but he gets it wrong like anybody else sometimes.

I wouldn't completely discount a hot summer, all the indicators -PDO/Nina/recent hot summer cycles, you'd definitely be better off predicting a hot summer. Only that the hope is there is room for a cool one based on some familiar years.

Ntxw wrote:

rwfromkansas wrote:

Ntxw wrote:
I am slightly leaning away from the hot summers of the past 2. Nino-Nina switches are bearable summers and every once in awhile extremely wet/cool. 1973 and 2007 for example. Especially when the Nina doesn't take off right away and Nino lag effects holds on. SOI hasn't responded to the Nina yet. Strangely last year was a dry Nino year like 1973 and 2006.

Yeah, I was assuming a more bearable summer, but he is pretty aggressive. But, he was wrong about the end of winter. Love the guy, but he gets it wrong like anybody else sometimes.

I wouldn't completely discount a hot summer, all the indicators -PDO/Nina/recent hot summer cycles, you'd definitely be better off predicting a hot summer. Only that the hope is there is room for a cool one based on some familiar years.

I think the southern half of the state will have an elevated risk of seeing tropical waves and cyclones this summer below the heat ridge. As a result we may see cooler conditions there compared to areas farther north. Most of the long-range models have been indicating this for the past few months and I see no reason to disagree right now.