STORM2K

Some high temperatures from Sunday, August 27
(BATR=broke all–time record)
(TATR=tied all–time record)

112°
Bay City
College Station
College Station Area ThreadEx (TATR)
Eagle Lake
La Porte
Navasota

111°
Austin Fire Station 46
Austin - far eastern RAWS station
Beaumont–Port Arthur Area ThreadEx (BATR)
Hallettsville 2N (TATR)
Houston Hooks AP
Huntsville
Lufkin–Angelina County AP (BATR)
Port Arthur SE Texas AP (BATR)

110°
Austin Bergstrom AP
Bastrop
Cleveland
Hearne
Lafayette AP, Louisiana (BATR)

109°
Austin Camp Mabry
Beaumont-Port Arthur AP
Cameron
Conroe
Crockett
Houston Area ThreadEx (TATR)
Houston Bush AP
Houston Hobby AP (BATR)
Lake Charles Area ThreadEx, Louisiana (BATR)
Lake Charles, Louisiana
Nacogdoches
Orange County AP
Palestine
Pearland
Sugar Land AP

108°
Angleton
Beaumont AP
Brenham
Caldwell
Georgetown
Gonzales
Horseshoe Bay
Killeen
Kyle
Liberty
New Braunfels
San Marcos
Temple
Victoria
Waco

107°
Giddings
La Grange
Port Lavaca
Wharton
Wimberly

106°
Austin Executive AP
Baton Rouge Metro AP, Louisiana (TATR)
Burnet
New Orleans
Taylor

105°
Fort Hood
Kerrville
New Orleans AP, Louisiana (BATR)
New Orleans Area ThreadEx, Louisiana (BATR)
New Orleans Lakefront AP, Louisiana (TATR)
San Antonio Randolph AFB

104°
Del Rio
Llano

101°
Galveston

Ntxw wrote: It's been one heck of a ridge, persistent. 2000 and 2006 were the only others I could find digging out in terms of real estate. Even 2011 (August) was localized to TX.

https://i.imgur.com/3GkYmpv.gif

https://i.imgur.com/oNi0S4o.gif

https://i.imgur.com/m88e0y8.gif

https://i.imgur.com/ElWeKDW.gif

Maybe a theory, along with the PDO pumping up the ridge (west coast low), is that the super hot Atlantic Ocean/Gulf extends these ridges too. It's certainly low enough in latitude to make that connection.

Here is a composite of two modern years for DFW that was cool August. I guess that 500mb notch near/off California is really important.

https://i.imgur.com/uaun8zT.png

Agree with the PDO and ATL analog. My research shows there is a correlation between a warm AMO and strong el nino leading to a Texas drought. Have a look at some of the warm Atlantic years with a cool spot in the center of a ring of warmer water around it. 1930's, 1950's had some warm ATL years. I think 2009 had many similarities as well.

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:

Ntxw wrote: It's been one heck of a ridge, persistent. 2000 and 2006 were the only others I could find digging out in terms of real estate. Even 2011 (August) was localized to TX.

https://i.imgur.com/3GkYmpv.gif

https://i.imgur.com/oNi0S4o.gif

https://i.imgur.com/m88e0y8.gif

https://i.imgur.com/ElWeKDW.gif

Maybe a theory, along with the PDO pumping up the ridge (west coast low), is that the super hot Atlantic Ocean/Gulf extends these ridges too. It's certainly low enough in latitude to make that connection.

Here is a composite of two modern years for DFW that was cool August. I guess that 500mb notch near/off California is really important.

https://i.imgur.com/uaun8zT.png

Agree with the PDO and ATL analog. My research shows there is a correlation between a warm AMO and strong el nino leading to a Texas drought. Have a look at some of the warm Atlantic years with a cool spot in the center of a ring of warmer water around it. 1930's, 1950's had some warm ATL years. I think 2009 had many similarities as well.

Do you see that keeping the drought long-term, or will El Nino help eventually?

rwfromkansas wrote:

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:

Ntxw wrote: It's been one heck of a ridge, persistent. 2000 and 2006 were the only others I could find digging out in terms of real estate. Even 2011 (August) was localized to TX.

https://i.imgur.com/3GkYmpv.gif

https://i.imgur.com/oNi0S4o.gif

https://i.imgur.com/m88e0y8.gif

https://i.imgur.com/ElWeKDW.gif

Maybe a theory, along with the PDO pumping up the ridge (west coast low), is that the super hot Atlantic Ocean/Gulf extends these ridges too. It's certainly low enough in latitude to make that connection.

Here is a composite of two modern years for DFW that was cool August. I guess that 500mb notch near/off California is really important.

https://i.imgur.com/uaun8zT.png

Agree with the PDO and ATL analog. My research shows there is a correlation between a warm AMO and strong el nino leading to a Texas drought. Have a look at some of the warm Atlantic years with a cool spot in the center of a ring of warmer water around it. 1930's, 1950's had some warm ATL years. I think 2009 had many similarities as well.

Do you see that keeping the drought long-term, or will El Nino help eventually?

El Nino will give some reprieve, but we are also sitting in a 3+ year period of -PDO. It took a lag for heat and drought (year 2 and 3) to kick in and it will take about the same to get out of it. So the better question is after the Nino sends relief, are we nestled in a longer term -PDO period where dry periods outnumber wet periods? My hunch is we are sitting in a longer term -PDO where Ninas outduals Ninos.

2015-2020 was the reverse with +PDO and it took 5+ years. The Atlantic has been warming, but not because of cycles, for more than two decades so it is hard to say how that will change. Likely it will be semi quasi +AMO for a long time.

It is like 2009-2010, not a bad wet El Nino run but before and after were droughty.

There is some predictability factor to it. Back in Fall of 2020 I had made a post after the first Nina flipped the PDO and kept it there in the onset.

Ntxw wrote:Near record heat today around Texas. DFW is forecast 94-95 and daily record high for October 8 is 96. Temperatures remain above normal until near the end of next week as it tries to lower closer to normal (however normal is falling quickly with climo) so we need forecasts in the 70s/50s to be about average.

I think the initial system is going to be MCS style event with the bulk of the heavy rain in Oklahoma. .

Atmospheric drought is beginning to take hold in the Northern and Southern Plains. -PDO in combo with -MEI is a pretty clear signal medium to long term drought is probably on the way. It's one of the strongest combo for the values since 2011/

Yukon Cornelius wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:My Butternut squash is toast, literally.

It did get down to the mid-60s this morning, it felt really nice.

For future reference, you can water with kelp and seaweed concentrate and it does a ton to help protect plants from the heat. You can also foliar spray the plants which also does a lot to protect them.

Oh yes, I have used the seaweed concentrate for years. A local certified horticultural person recommended it to me. I started with the liquid concentrate, then got the powder a couple years ago online. The powder you just add 1 to 2 teaspoons of powder to a gallon of water and it's ready to use. The powder goes a long way and it's easier for me to store. I just keep it in the utility closet in the air conditioned house.

That stuff is a miracle tonic. I use it as a foliar feed on the lawn, my landscape plants, and water it in my houseplants. If landscape plants are extra stressed, I water those plants in with it.

I think the seaweed has saved a lot of them/toughened them up during the flash heat/droughts and flash deep icepocalypse freezes of recent years.

Some rain on the Edwards.

weatherdude1108 wrote:

Yukon Cornelius wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:My Butternut squash is toast, literally.

It did get down to the mid-60s this morning, it felt really nice.

For future reference, you can water with kelp and seaweed concentrate and it does a ton to help protect plants from the heat. You can also foliar spray the plants which also does a lot to protect them.

Oh yes, I have used the seaweed concentrate for years. A local certified horticultural person recommended it to me. I started with the liquid concentrate, then got the powder a couple years ago online. The powder you just add 1 to 2 teaspoons of powder to a gallon of water and it's ready to use. The powder goes a long way and it's easier for me to store. I just keep it in the utility closet in the air conditioned house.

That stuff is a miracle tonic. I use it as a foliar feed on the lawn, my landscape plants, and water it in my houseplants. If landscape plants are extra stressed, I water those plants in with it.

I think the seaweed has saved a lot of them/toughened them up during the flash heat/droughts and flash deep icepocalypse freezes of recent years.

Curious as to what product you use. I’ve been looking for a good powder.

jasons2k wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:

Yukon Cornelius wrote:For future reference, you can water with kelp and seaweed concentrate and it does a ton to help protect plants from the heat. You can also foliar spray the plants which also does a lot to protect them.

Oh yes, I have used the seaweed concentrate for years. A local certified horticultural person recommended it to me. I started with the liquid concentrate, then got the powder a couple years ago online. The powder you just add 1 to 2 teaspoons of powder to a gallon of water and it's ready to use. The powder goes a long way and it's easier for me to store. I just keep it in the utility closet in the air conditioned house.

That stuff is a miracle tonic. I use it as a foliar feed on the lawn, my landscape plants, and water it in my houseplants. If landscape plants are extra stressed, I water those plants in with it.

I think the seaweed has saved a lot of them/toughened them up during the flash heat/droughts and flash deep icepocalypse freezes of recent years.

Curious as to what product you use. I’ve been looking for a good powder.

I had been using Maxicrop Seaweed powder, but they raised their price a lot. So I searched for another and found something called "Grower's Secret Soluble Seaweed Powder." They are both derived from ascophyllum nodosum, but the Grower's Secret is finer than the Maxicrop, and doesn't have as strong a seaweed odor. Maxicrop is less messy to use, and I like the seaweed odor of Maxicrop (reminds me of the beach). There are a lot out there, and I do like Maxicrop just because I have had good results with it. I have with the cheaper Grower's Secret also. Trial and error.

Hilarious insult to injury. It looks like no one in H-Town is getting anything today.

SoupBone wrote:Hilarious insult to injury. It looks like no one in H-Town is getting anything today.

2nd bust in a row for a lot of us. Remember, most of us had a solid 70% chance of rain advertised with the tropical wave that later became Harold, only to have that yanked away when the storm decided to stay south, taking all the moisture with it.

Then this - we were all supposed to cash-in on at least ONE of the two days the front was around. High rain chances in the forecast all week and then at the last minute - jilted again. It's just ridiculous. I'm sure when the drought ends, in typical Texas fashion, we'll get it all back at once.

Side note - speaking of Harold - it seems like that storm is ancient history now and yet Franklin is still out there, spinning away. Wish we still had James Franklin around to gives us some more humor about "Franklin the storm, not the forecaster" hehe.

weatherdude1108 wrote:

Yukon Cornelius wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:My Butternut squash is toast, literally.

It did get down to the mid-60s this morning, it felt really nice.

For future reference, you can water with kelp and seaweed concentrate and it does a ton to help protect plants from the heat. You can also foliar spray the plants which also does a lot to protect them.

Oh yes, I have used the seaweed concentrate for years. A local certified horticultural person recommended it to me. I started with the liquid concentrate, then got the powder a couple years ago online. The powder you just add 1 to 2 teaspoons of powder to a gallon of water and it's ready to use. The powder goes a long way and it's easier for me to store. I just keep it in the utility closet in the air conditioned house.

That stuff is a miracle tonic. I use it as a foliar feed on the lawn, my landscape plants, and water it in my houseplants. If landscape plants are extra stressed, I water those plants in with it.

I think the seaweed has saved a lot of them/toughened them up during the flash heat/droughts and flash deep icepocalypse freezes of recent years.

100%. It’s a life saver.

The NWS forecast for Austin Camp Mabry for August 29-31 would result in 2023 tying 2011 for hottest summer on record. Mathematically, 2023 would end up 0.03° hotter than 2011.

63 this morning!

Hoping and praying that this late fall and winter will delivery a very wet Nino for us. News came out yesterday that Canyon Lake is at its lowest level ever. Lake Travis is down to 40% full. No rain in sight here for the next week.

We are in the worst level of drought (D4 - exceptional drought) now.

Portastorm wrote:Hoping and praying that this late fall and winter will delivery a very wet Nino for us. News came out yesterday that Canyon Lake is at its lowest level ever. Lake Travis is down to 40% full. No rain in sight here for the next week.

We are in the worst level of drought (D4 - exceptional drought) now.

You and me both!

Percent full of some south central Texas reservoirs:
80.8...Granger
68.4...Canyon
50.1...Georgetown
48.6...Buchanan
38.9...Travis

https://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

I didn't get a chance to post anything yesterday due to tree limb clean up after Sundays unexpected storm. That cell that move into southern Tarrant along 287 south was powerful, especially with the winds. Had gusts that easily paseed 60 mph, enough to brind down some large tree limbs in the Kennedale/Mansfield area and knock out power in several areas. Neighbor across the street had HALF of his tree split and come down. The winds were strong enough to push water up the street. Rain amount was maybe .25" but it did rain hard for a good 20 min or more. But again it was the wind that surprised me the most, usually see that in severe storms, but NWS didn't issue any warning or alerts to that cell.

Just glad to get some rain at least

According to the National Weather Service forecast for the next 2 days for Austin Camp Mabry, 2011 will remain the hottest summer on record, with 2023 ending up second.

Well for what it's worth one of our TV mets is saying no more heat after mid September... We shall see

The lack of rain is also starting to become an issue up here again even though July and early August was wet