STORM2K

A new meteorological season is approaching here in Texas. Hopefully not too much severe weather, but a good amount of beneficial rain. And maybe even a late winter surprise or two…

Winter disappointed me in Longview, but my favorite time of year is quickly approaching... Spring! I'm a severe weather enthusiast so bring on the spring storms!

March temperatures look above average... hopefully we don't see an early summer and can enjoy spring for a few months.

Hopefully, this Spring brings better rain chances for South Central and Southeast TX with the La Nina slowly losing its grip as the year progresses (I'm not nearly as concerned with rain chances in North and NW TX). As a result, the SOI should hopefully trend consistently near 0 and eventually trend consistently negative due to more WWB (Westerly Wind Bursts) in the Nino 3.4 as compared to the strong EWB (Easterly Wind Bursts) of the past few years. The SOI hasn't been consistently near 0 since May 1, 2020 (2.57) and consistently negative since December 1, 2019 (-6.72). https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/monthly-graphs/

More importantly, if long-range forecasts are to be believed, a Neutral ENSO trending toward El Nino later this year should lead to a more Positive PDO-looking orientation in the Pacific as compared to the well-defined Negative PDO orientation of the past few years. Though we still may officially be in a Negative or Cool Phase of the PDO, we can still get positive spikes or Warm-looking Phases of the PDO which would theoretically lead to overall better rain chances over Texas and the Southern Plains in conjunction with a more active southern jet stream. A 'Super El Nino', as some have been predicting to develop later this year, may help our cause in trending the PDO warmer even if temporarily for a year or so. I'm kinda hoping this recent anomalous cool 3-year La Nina serves as the peak of this current Negative or Cool Phase PDO we have been experiencing since around 2008 or so and we eventually trend to an official Positive or Warm Phase PDO again in a few years.

All in all, I'm hopeful for a more promising long-range weather pattern with more consistent rainfall accumulations for our regions despite these trends not showing up in short or medium-forecast modeling as of this time. We shall see what not only Spring but also Summer and Fall bring as a result of these forecasted ENSO changes later this year.

869MB wrote:Hopefully, this Spring brings better rain chances for South Central and Southeast TX with the La Nina slowly losing its grip as the year progresses (I'm not nearly as concerned with rain chances in North and NW TX). As a result, the SOI should hopefully trend consistently near 0 and eventually trend consistently negative due to more WWB (Westerly Wind Bursts) in the Nino 3.4 as compared to the strong EWB (Easterly Wind Bursts) of the past few years. The SOI hasn't been consistently near 0 since May 1, 2020 (2.57) and consistently negative since December 1, 2019 (-6.72). https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/monthly-graphs/

More importantly, if long-range forecasts are to be believed, a Neutral ENSO trending toward El Nino later this year should lead to a more Positive PDO-looking orientation in the Pacific as compared to the well-defined Negative PDO orientation of the past few years. Though we still may officially be in a Negative or Cool Phase of the PDO, we can still get positive spikes or Warm-looking Phases of the PDO which would theoretically lead to overall better rain chances over Texas and the Southern Plains in conjunction with a more active southern jet stream. A 'Super El Nino', as some have been predicting to develop later this year, may help our cause in trending the PDO warmer even if temporarily for a year or so. I'm kinda hoping this recent anomalous cool 3-year La Nina serves as the peak of this current Negative or Cool Phase PDO we have been experiencing since around 2008 or so and we eventually trend to an official Positive or Warm Phase PDO again in a few years.

All in all, I'm hopeful for a more promising long-range weather pattern with more consistent rainfall accumulations for our regions despite these trends not showing up in short or medium-forecast modeling as of this time. We shall see what not only Spring but also Summer and Fall bring as a result of these forecasted ENSO changes later this year.

Yeah I'm optimistic we'll trend wetter as we head through the year with El Nino likely returning. It sure would be nice for the state to be drought free again as we head into 2024!

Here is the latest drought map of the state that is updated every thursdays with the stats.





https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentM ... or.aspx?TX

cycloneye wrote:Here is the latest drought map of the state that is updated every thursdays with the stats.

https://i.imgur.com/jLRnlzE.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/gaScwuE.jpg

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentM ... or.aspx?TX

It's crazy how persistent that small area of exceptional drought has been in South Central Texas.

bubba hotep wrote:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fpw5EVtaEAA4I8N?format=jpg&name=medium

We’ll see about that.

Apps are definitely on the cold side for March and I will say they were way too warm the last couple days a week or so ago we shall see but I'll be shocked if we don't at least see a snowstorm threat here. The last couple days have proved that winter definitely isn't over

Lol right as I said that the 0z GFS has some snow into North Texas early Friday

Cpv17 wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fpw5EVtaEAA4I8N?format=jpg&name=medium

We’ll see about that.

There is broad support for it and we will probably see it trend colder. Longest below normal stretch of winter will be in March lol

Who ordered up this Spring weather?

bubba hotep wrote:Who ordered up this Spring weather?

https://i.ibb.co/jTN22vR/022523.png

Like Ntxw said, this should’ve came a month earlier.

bubba hotep wrote:Who ordered up this Spring weather?

https://i.ibb.co/jTN22vR/022523.png

Yeah our TV met just mentioned it too

It's a shame we wasted February but we're not dead up here yet for sure although I might laugh if our best snowstorm is in March

Brent wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Who ordered up this Spring weather?

https://i.ibb.co/jTN22vR/022523.png

Yeah our TV met just mentioned it too

It's a shame we wasted February but we're not dead up here yet for sure although I might laugh if our best snowstorm is in March

Hell as far north as you live, it can probably still snow there in April lol

Cpv17 wrote:

Brent wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Who ordered up this Spring weather?

https://i.ibb.co/jTN22vR/022523.png

Yeah our TV met just mentioned it too

It's a shame we wasted February but we're not dead up here yet for sure although I might laugh if our best snowstorm is in March

Hell as far north as you live, it can probably still snow there in April lol

Haha it's actually snowed in May before

It's just weird that February would come up with nothing. I mean I haven't even seen a flake this month

Concerned about the potential for another severe weather outbreak on Thursday focused further south into parts of Texas this time. Models look to be trending slower today with the approaching system/trough ejecting out from the west on Thursday. Ample shear (NAM parameters/soundings 84 hours out look insane already) along with the classic spring clash of airmasses across the state likely to be in place. Obviously other factors need to be considered as we get closer, but definitely something to keep an eye on going forward this week.

txtwister78 wrote:Concerned about the potential for another severe weather outbreak on Thursday focused further south into parts of Texas this time. Models look to be trending slower today with the approaching system/trough ejecting out from the west on Thursday. Ample shear (NAM parameters/soundings 84 hours out look insane already) along with the classic spring clash of airmasses across the state likely to be in place. Obviously other factors need to be considered as we get closer, but definitely something to keep an eye on going forward this week.

Agreed, my eyes have been glued to this since the SPC started highlighting it. If the nam timing is right, most of central and eastern Texas will be in the thick of this, along with points east of course

cheezyWXguy wrote:

txtwister78 wrote:Concerned about the potential for another severe weather outbreak on Thursday focused further south into parts of Texas this time. Models look to be trending slower today with the approaching system/trough ejecting out from the west on Thursday. Ample shear (NAM parameters/soundings 84 hours out look insane already) along with the classic spring clash of airmasses across the state likely to be in place. Obviously other factors need to be considered as we get closer, but definitely something to keep an eye on going forward this week.

Agreed, my eyes have been glued to this since the SPC started highlighting it. If the nam timing is right, most of central and eastern Texas will be in the thick of this, along with points east of course

The 12z NAM timing also has me under this, it tries to have Last Night for me all over again!

Iceresistance wrote:

cheezyWXguy wrote:

txtwister78 wrote:Concerned about the potential for another severe weather outbreak on Thursday focused further south into parts of Texas this time. Models look to be trending slower today with the approaching system/trough ejecting out from the west on Thursday. Ample shear (NAM parameters/soundings 84 hours out look insane already) along with the classic spring clash of airmasses across the state likely to be in place. Obviously other factors need to be considered as we get closer, but definitely something to keep an eye on going forward this week.

Agreed, my eyes have been glued to this since the SPC started highlighting it. If the nam timing is right, most of central and eastern Texas will be in the thick of this, along with points east of course

The 12z NAM timing also has me under this, it tries to have Last Night for me all over again!

As of right now it’s definitely an outlier with regard to timing. We’ll need at least another of day of runs to start piecing together trends though, as we’re basically still out in the nam’s la-la land