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Re: Texas Spring 2021
Posted: Sat May 22, 2021 12:40 pm
by captainbarbossa19
Cpv17 wrote:captainbarbossa19 wrote:bubba hotep wrote:Our tropical low has moved inland and will bring rain to the state today and tomorrow. Doesn't look like there will be much in the way of flooding, so this is a best case scenario for a landfalling tropical low. Beyond that, the wet pattern looks to continue for much of Texas over the next couple of weeks. Also, CPC is seeing avg rainfall for much of Texas for the summer. Maybe we can get into the Fall without a large drought setting in
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E11Ww_IVcAAz8gJ?format=png&name=large
Unless a large ridge builds in and lingers for a month or more, a large drought is unlikely to happen this summer. Considering how wet this month has been, once the sun heats up the ground and water begins to evaporate, summer showers will likely result. While not impossible, the chances of a dry summer are continuing to decrease. This year is MUCH greener/wetter than the years 2011-2013.
We’ve now had 21” here since April 30th.
That's incredible. I think I have had over a foot in the past week. Considering most of March and April were dry for me, this rain has helped eliminate the deficit.
Re: Texas Spring 2021
Posted: Sat May 22, 2021 3:25 pm
by Cpv17
captainbarbossa19 wrote:Cpv17 wrote:captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Unless a large ridge builds in and lingers for a month or more, a large drought is unlikely to happen this summer. Considering how wet this month has been, once the sun heats up the ground and water begins to evaporate, summer showers will likely result. While not impossible, the chances of a dry summer are continuing to decrease. This year is MUCH greener/wetter than the years 2011-2013.
We’ve now had 21” here since April 30th.
That's incredible. I think I have had over a foot in the past week. Considering most of March and April were dry for me, this rain has helped eliminate the deficit.
Flash flood watch issued for Wharton County again till 7am Monday. After taking a look at some of the models I see why the NWS issued it. Definitely looks like a few more inches on the way.
Re: Texas Spring 2021
Posted: Sat May 22, 2021 3:38 pm
by TexasBreeze
I feel much better about rain and moisture heading into summer for Texas now than I did a few weeks ago!
Re: Texas Spring 2021
Posted: Sun May 23, 2021 3:39 pm
by vbhoutex
Cpv17 wrote:captainbarbossa19 wrote:Cpv17 wrote:
We’ve now had 21” here since April 30th.
That's incredible. I think I have had over a foot in the past week. Considering most of March and April were dry for me, this rain has helped eliminate the deficit.
Flash flood watch issued for Wharton County again till 7am Monday. After taking a look at some of the models I see why the NWS issued it. Definitely looks like a few more inches on the way.
I'm in the Spring Branch area of Houston. We've had 6" over the last week and had almost 5" about 2 weeks ago which has made up our deficit. Prior to that we had maybe 7" for the year up to that point. 21" since April 30 is just insane! I was starting to have deja vu back to the 2011-2013 timeframe when we watched drought perpetuate drought. Not so worried about that now. In fact we wouldn't mind a break for several days.
Re: Texas Spring 2021
Posted: Mon May 24, 2021 8:14 am
by bubba hotep
For North Texas, today looks like a better setup for heavy rain than most of the days last week when we were under a Flash Flood Watch lol
Re: Texas Spring 2021
Posted: Mon May 24, 2021 8:39 am
by DonWrk
bubba hotep wrote:For North Texas, today looks like a better setup for heavy rain than most of the days last week when we were under a Flash Flood Watch lol
Exactly what I've been thinking! Could be some surprising amounts in places.
Re: Texas Spring 2021
Posted: Mon May 24, 2021 10:03 am
by KatDaddy
Flash Flood Watch extended slightly E to include the Houston area:
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has expanded
the
* Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of southeast Texas...
including the following counties...Austin...Coastal Brazoria...
Fort Bend...Grimes...Inland Brazoria...Inland Harris...
Montgomery...Waller and Washington.
* Until 9 PM CDT this evening
* Another round of moderate to heavy rain and isolated
thunderstorms can be expected across parts of Southeast Texas
through this evening. A band of storms this morning from around
Freeport feeding up into Fort Bend and Harris counties will
continue to do so through early afternoon. Training of storms
will be piling up the rainfall in these areas and rainfall
totals of 2 to 3 inches will be common with isolated totals in
excess of 6 inches. The flood threat will be strongly dependent
on the location of the heaviest precipitation axis. If any
heavy rain falls on already saturated grounds, flash flooding
can be expected.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Re: Texas Spring 2021
Posted: Mon May 24, 2021 10:22 am
by rwfromkansas
I've already gotten more rain today than some days under the flash flood watch, and that was a very tiny heavy shower.
Re: Texas Spring 2021
Posted: Mon May 24, 2021 11:02 am
by Cpv17
rwfromkansas wrote:I've already gotten more rain today than some days under the flash flood watch, and that was a very tiny heavy shower.
Check out the overnight Euro and what it’s showing for the beginning of next week. Another possible cutoff low it looks like.
Re: Texas Spring 2021
Posted: Mon May 24, 2021 12:00 pm
by captainbarbossa19
Cpv17 wrote:rwfromkansas wrote:I've already gotten more rain today than some days under the flash flood watch, and that was a very tiny heavy shower.
Check out the overnight Euro and what it’s showing for the beginning of next week. Another possible cutoff low it looks like.
If this were to happen, the effects could be devastating considering how saturated the ground is right now. This could easily trigger major river flooding.
Re: Texas Spring 2021
Posted: Mon May 24, 2021 12:14 pm
by Cpv17
captainbarbossa19 wrote:Cpv17 wrote:rwfromkansas wrote:I've already gotten more rain today than some days under the flash flood watch, and that was a very tiny heavy shower.
Check out the overnight Euro and what it’s showing for the beginning of next week. Another possible cutoff low it looks like.
If this were to happen, the effects could be devastating considering how saturated the ground is right now. This could easily trigger major river flooding.
Re: Texas Spring 2021
Posted: Mon May 24, 2021 12:36 pm
by captainbarbossa19
Yeah that's not good with that east coast ridge and low over Mexico.
Re: Texas Spring 2021
Posted: Mon May 24, 2021 5:13 pm
by bubba hotep
Straight up gully washer IMBY!
Re: Texas Spring 2021
Posted: Mon May 24, 2021 6:17 pm
by EnnisTx
Been watching some awesome live storm chasers video by Phillip Leuking up North.Add Darin Brunin to that!
Re: Texas Spring 2021
Posted: Mon May 24, 2021 9:03 pm
by bubba hotep
bubba hotep wrote:Straight up gully washer IMBY!
I need to get a new rain gauge so I can track this stuff but my neighbor said he picked up over an inch during the two downpours this afternoon.
Re: Texas Spring 2021
Posted: Mon May 24, 2021 10:12 pm
by rwfromkansas
Almost two inches IMBY.
More rain than most days last week. Lol.
Re: Texas Spring 2021
Posted: Tue May 25, 2021 7:52 am
by KatDaddy
Another Flash Flood Watch for Houston and areas to the SW until 7PM due to saturated grounds and some locally heavy rainfall possible this afternoon. Lots of sun still on the way Thursday and Friday
we need. I wonder who will win the rainfall lottery today in SETX????? Areas NW of Houston saw 12" in a few hours from slow moving tropical downpours. Even portions of Houston saw isolated 6-8"
totals resulting in significant street flooding.
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
The Flash Flood Watch continues for
* Portions of south central Texas and southeast Texas...
including the following counties...in south central Texas...
Coastal Jackson and Inland Jackson. In southeast Texas...
Austin...Brazoria Islands...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Harris...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Inland
Brazoria...Inland Harris...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Waller...Washington and Wharton.
* Through this evening
* Look for showers and thunderstorms to increase in areal coverage today with the aid of daytime heating and another upper level disturbance moving across the state. Soils are extremely saturated and rivers are swollen from daily rainfall occurring over the past week. Localized amounts between 4 and 12 inches were observed just yesterday. It won`t take much additional rainfall, especially heavy rain in a short time period, to
quickly runoff to produce additional flooding. Precipitation
should taper off this evening with the loss of heating.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Re: Texas Spring 2021
Posted: Tue May 25, 2021 8:29 am
by WacoWx
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
600 AM CDT Tue May 25 2021
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
This morning`s guidance has been struggling to capture the ongoing
thunderstorms that developed south of the original complex of
storms across the Texas Panhandle.
An outflow boundary is now from around Bowie to Breckenridge,
slowly moving eastward. A complex of storms is just now moving
into Young, Stephens and Eastland counties, migrating to the
southeast. Behind this complex, additional storms have developed
and are expected to push eastward through the rest of the morning.
The main changes to the short-term forecast were made to the
precipitation chances as we go through the rest of the morning and
afternoon. Rain chances were bumped up to account for the higher
than anticipated convection currently going on, as well as a
general trend from the CAMs toward higher PoPs this afternoon.
Although we are likely starting to sound like a broken record, any
heavy rain will have the potential to lead to flooding. Saturated
soils will lead to quick runoff anywhere across North Texas. If
you see water over the road, remember, Turn Around, Don`t Drown!
In addition to the flooding, gusty winds will remain possible with
any thunderstorm today.
Re: Texas Spring 2021
Posted: Tue May 25, 2021 9:57 am
by gpsnowman
I'm in Arlington today and it is windy and coming down hard.
Re: Texas Spring 2021
Posted: Tue May 25, 2021 1:43 pm
by Texas Snowman
Had blinding downpours in Denison overnight. Crazy hard rain. Neighbor had water in his house this morning and said someone (with the city, I think) told him there might have been three inches in a little more than an hour.
They had flooding in Sherman along Highway 75 (always a flood prone area) and had some cars stranded (flooded?) according to the Grayson County Scanner Social media.
Kind of seems like 2015 or 2007 again.