STORM2K

Cpv17 wrote:Yeah I’m liking the setup for tomorrow afternoon and it even looks like I could get some good storms tomorrow evening down here in SETX. Could be a significant tornado threat for CTX.

bubba hotep wrote:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EY_NnZpUwAAk-_f?format=jpg&name=small

Brent wrote:May have to watch the Gulf next week for possible mischief
https://i.ibb.co/hYwdNHt/L32twSJ.png

newtotex wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EY_NnZpUwAAk-_f?format=jpg&name=small

And on the 23rd anniversary of the Jarrell tornado

bubba hotep wrote:

Brent wrote:May have to watch the Gulf next week for possible mischief
https://i.ibb.co/hYwdNHt/L32twSJ.png

The yearly CAG watch! Lopsided storm into the FL panhandle? I would prefer that a system get trapped under a ridge and pushed back into Texas bringing us at least one more round of widespread rain before the summer pattern sets in. I wonder how much the CAG influences the development of the summer pattern across the South? Anytime we get a system in the Central or Eastern Gulf we seem to get a dry pattern locked in across Texas in it's wake. However, that is totally anecdotal and I have not looked at any data.

Brent wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:From the FWD AFD:

By Sunday, nearly continuous troughing will connect a mid-latitude
longwave emerging from the Rockies to a relative weakness in the
Gulf. This will result in a steady transition to a tropical,
moist-adiabatic profile above North and Central Texas. While this
will reduce the severe potential, persistent lift will maintain
widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms throughout Sunday
and Monday. Extraordinary precipitation efficiency through this
protracted rain event could mean considerable flooding by Memorial
Day, both short-scale flashing flooding and more prolonged
flooding of our near-capacity river/reservoir systems.

this was amazing too

The rainfall will further strengthen the troughing aloft, which
will in turn lead to more rain events. This feedback loop will
steadily develop a semi-permanent cyclone over the Lone Star
State. A blocking high over the eastern seaboard will keep the
low anchored, additional rain events only reinforcing its gloom.
It`s often a tall task for largely sub-synoptic processes to
disrupt the background pattern to this extent, but extended
guidance remains in remarkably good agreement. Warm season
patterns like this typically demonstrate considerable ensemble
spread, but that is also not the case. A prolonged heavy rain
event this time of year tends to prevent the development of
subtropical ridging; as a result, a wet pattern is projected to
dominate through the summer solstice.

DonWrk wrote:

Brent wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:From the FWD AFD:

By Sunday, nearly continuous troughing will connect a mid-latitude
longwave emerging from the Rockies to a relative weakness in the
Gulf. This will result in a steady transition to a tropical,
moist-adiabatic profile above North and Central Texas. While this
will reduce the severe potential, persistent lift will maintain
widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms throughout Sunday
and Monday. Extraordinary precipitation efficiency through this
protracted rain event could mean considerable flooding by Memorial
Day, both short-scale flashing flooding and more prolonged
flooding of our near-capacity river/reservoir systems.

this was amazing too

The rainfall will further strengthen the troughing aloft, which
will in turn lead to more rain events. This feedback loop will
steadily develop a semi-permanent cyclone over the Lone Star
State. A blocking high over the eastern seaboard will keep the
low anchored, additional rain events only reinforcing its gloom.
It`s often a tall task for largely sub-synoptic processes to
disrupt the background pattern to this extent, but extended
guidance remains in remarkably good agreement. Warm season
patterns like this typically demonstrate considerable ensemble
spread, but that is also not the case. A prolonged heavy rain
event this time of year tends to prevent the development of
subtropical ridging; as a result, a wet pattern is projected to
dominate through the summer solstice.

This statement made me believe we were about to be in for it. Now I feel like the summer pattern is already here, with models showing very little rain for the next 2-3 weeks.

Cpv17 wrote:

DonWrk wrote:

Brent wrote:
this was amazing too

The rainfall will further strengthen the troughing aloft, which
will in turn lead to more rain events. This feedback loop will
steadily develop a semi-permanent cyclone over the Lone Star
State. A blocking high over the eastern seaboard will keep the
low anchored, additional rain events only reinforcing its gloom.
It`s often a tall task for largely sub-synoptic processes to
disrupt the background pattern to this extent, but extended
guidance remains in remarkably good agreement. Warm season
patterns like this typically demonstrate considerable ensemble
spread, but that is also not the case. A prolonged heavy rain
event this time of year tends to prevent the development of
subtropical ridging; as a result, a wet pattern is projected to
dominate through the summer solstice.

This statement made me believe we were about to be in for it. Now I feel like the summer pattern is already here, with models showing very little rain for the next 2-3 weeks.

Unless we get that epac crossover.