STORM2K

rendihess wrote:

dhweather wrote:It's only 384 hours out - but the GFS has a CAT 5 IN THE GULF of Alaska.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019112212/gfs_mslp_uv850_namer_65.png

Sorry I am not a meteorologist or anything of the sort I just love weather. With that being said why is there excitement when there is a Category 5 in the gulf?

It does go way back to the mid 2000's - "Cat 5 in the Gulf" became a running gag in the Talkin Tropics forum. There were some model watchers that got a little too excited when models would have a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, and they would post something like:

"The GFS Has a Cat 5 in the Gulf next Wednesday"

and hype it up. Having fun with those posts grew legs and became "Cat 5 in the Gulf"

Good thing it's 360 hours

The latest suite of models is not very exciting.

Both the GFS and CMC with a big snow/ice storm for the Texas panhandle next week. Would be a good chase opportunity if it weren't for the fact it's Thanksgiving next week. Euro is a bit further north with the storm, but it looks like a decent hit for the Northern Panhandle on the 12z run.

weatherdude1108 wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

rendihess wrote:


Sorry I am not a meteorologist or anything of the sort I just love weather. With that being said why is there excitement when there is a Category 5 in the gulf?

dhweather is just being sarcastic. It goes back a long way.

Yes, the CAT 5 IN THE GULF is dhweather's legend signature. I think it goes back to before I started looking on this forum.

Thanks for the clarification! Just wanted to make sure I wasn't missing something. Lol!

Neither the GEFS or EPS mean even has a freeze at DFW

Brent wrote:Neither the GEFS or EPS mean even has a freeze at DFW

Yep. This is why I don’t buy into the hype anymore. All these posts about how the telleconnections and etc are pointing towards a cold winter got thrown out the window for me after last winter. I’ll start to buy into it when I see it on the models inside 7 days.

Wow another disappoint winter? Why I'm not surprised? ibamos tan bien...

LOL! Gentlemen, let's not give up on winter before it starts, shall we? We all know long range models flip flop.

Cpv17 wrote:

Brent wrote:Neither the GEFS or EPS mean even has a freeze at DFW

Yep. This is why I don’t buy into the hype anymore. All these posts about how the teleconnections and etc are pointing towards a cold winter got thrown out the window for me after last winter. I’ll start to buy into it when I see it on the models inside 7 days.

Agree totally with you!

Yeah, I, like many, really got torched by the GEFS teleconnections forecasts last winter 2019, despite the SSW event last season the GEFS had persistently forecasted a - NAO to occur in late January into early February, when the SSW event occured, and it never came to fruition last winter. Everything for the event seemed to be in place to bring arctic cold south, which was anticipated, but it never happened and the brùtal arctic air stayed botted up across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions
So, I too am being very cautious not to buy into model runs past 10 days this upcoming Winter season.

harp wrote:LOL! Gentlemen, let's not give up on winter before it starts, shall we? We all know long range models flip flop.

They do! Thus the cringe post a few days ago. It is also unfair to compare this winter to last winter. It is a whole different winter. Plus I think many did good beating the models Mid October to early November would be cold despite the unrelenting heat in Aug-Sept. So forecast busts can go either way

Ntxw wrote:

harp wrote:LOL! Gentlemen, let's not give up on winter before it starts, shall we? We all know long range models flip flop.

They do! Thus the cringe post a few days ago. It is also unfair to compare this winter to last winter. It is a whole different winter. Plus I think many did good beating the models Mid October to early November would be cold despite the unrelenting heat in Aug-Sept. So forecast busts can go either way

Good point. We should not make comparisons to a season that has yet to start (meteorological winter begins Dec 1). We shall see how it will fare this upcoming winter.

I think back on last year's SSW event and how bad I busted on my forecasts at that time. Ouch!! That one smarted for yours truly. Oh well, you are going to in this business miss on a few .......

Hey guys. I am having a problem. How do i upload a photo here for yall to view? I have a pic on my gallery that i want to post.

hamburgerman7070 wrote:Hey guys. I am having a problem. How do i upload a photo here for yall to view? I have a pic on my gallery that i want to post.

I use imgbb and then paste the URL here

Also on the subject of models you see where my skepticism comes from I'm not cancelling winter by any means but it is kind of disturbing how we always seem to follow a trend where nothing verifies in the long range

Brent wrote:

hamburgerman7070 wrote:Hey guys. I am having a problem. How do i upload a photo here for yall to view? I have a pic on my gallery that i want to post.

I use imgbb and then paste the URL here

Also on the subject of models you see where my skepticism comes from I'm not cancelling winter by any means but it is kind of disturbing how we always seem to follow a trend where nothing verifies in the long range

Brent, i tried copying the image and also saved it to my clipboard. I am using my cellphone to do this. It wont let me pull it from my gallery either. Getting frustrated

hamburgerman7070 wrote:

Brent wrote:

hamburgerman7070 wrote:Hey guys. I am having a problem. How do i upload a photo here for yall to view? I have a pic on my gallery that i want to post.

I use imgbb and then paste the URL here

Also on the subject of models you see where my skepticism comes from I'm not cancelling winter by any means but it is kind of disturbing how we always seem to follow a trend where nothing verifies in the long range

Brent, i tried copying the image and also saved it to my clipboard. I am using my cellphone to do this. It wont let me pull it from my gallery either. Getting frustrated

You should be able to save to your phone first and then select image from when it says start uploading and do it that way

Brent wrote:

hamburgerman7070 wrote:Hey guys. I am having a problem. How do i upload a photo here for yall to view? I have a pic on my gallery that i want to post.

I use imgbb and then paste the URL here

Also on the subject of models you see where my skepticism comes from I'm not cancelling winter by any means but it is kind of disturbing how we always seem to follow a trend where nothing verifies in the long range

We shouldn’t get excited about anything the models show over 7 days out.

Remember the rule of forecasting. Day 1 is 100% accuracy, and subtract 10% each day out from there. There is 0% accuracy @ 10 days out.

I don't start buying into the possibility of anything more than 3 days out. The weather rock currently says sunny, cold, and frosty start to sunday.

CaptinCrunch wrote:Remember the rule of forecasting. Day 1 is 100% accuracy, and subtract 10% each day out from there. There is 0% accuracy @ 10 days out.

I don't start buying into the possibility of anything more than 3 days out. The weather rock currently says sunny, cold, and frosty start to sunday.

Weather Rock?

starsfan65 wrote:

CaptinCrunch wrote:Remember the rule of forecasting. Day 1 is 100% accuracy, and subtract 10% each day out from there. There is 0% accuracy @ 10 days out.

I don't start buying into the possibility of anything more than 3 days out. The weather rock currently says sunny, cold, and frosty start to sunday.

Weather Rock?

https://youtu.be/8nwfVh_39Bg
The great Harold Taft