STORM2K

Euro tries to be a little interesting Thanksgiving morning out west of DFW

But the big day 10 storm went poof and it's much warmer then. Yeah I don't think these models have a clue yet. Zero consistency

Brent wrote:Euro tries to be a little interesting Thanksgiving morning out west of DFW

But the big day 10 storm went poof and it's much warmer then. Yeah I don't think these models have a clue yet. Zero consistency

The models aren't handling the faster, more progressive pattern well. They keep trying to bring cold air down across Texas but they are failing. My wall is strong along the Canadian border. I installed a diverter to send all really cold air eastward vs. south to Texas this winter.

gpsnowman wrote:

wxman57 wrote:

Brent wrote:Euro tries to be a little interesting Thanksgiving morning out west of DFW

But the big day 10 storm went poof and it's much warmer then. Yeah I don't think these models have a clue yet. Zero consistency

The models aren't handling the faster, more progressive pattern well. They keep trying to bring cold air down across Texas but they are failing. My wall is strong along the Canadian border. I installed a diverter to send all really cold air eastward vs. south to Texas this winter.

Hey Gorby, tear down your wall!!!! The unification of the Arctic and south Texas is inevitable.

gpsnowman wrote:

gpsnowman wrote:

wxman57 wrote:
The models aren't handling the faster, more progressive pattern well. They keep trying to bring cold air down across Texas but they are failing. My wall is strong along the Canadian border. I installed a diverter to send all really cold air eastward vs. south to Texas this winter.

Hey Gorby, tear down your wall!!!! The unification of the Arctic and south Texas is inevitable.

My wall is stronger than ever this year. Nothing will penetrate it (barring a fire-breathing dragon...).

wxman57 wrote:

gpsnowman wrote:

gpsnowman wrote:

Hey Gorby, tear down your wall!!!! The unification of the Arctic and south Texas is inevitable.

My wall is stronger than ever this year. Nothing will penetrate it (barring a fire-breathing dragon...).

http://wxman57.com/images/wall.JPG

See that opening at the bottom of your wall... Those are my guys heading in with enough incendiary devices to make this area look like the plains.

We're all watching the PNA, Heat Miser is trying to make it either more Positive or Negative than Neutral!

Extreme model consistency for the AO & NAO to become Negative, & the PNA for the next few days, but after that for the PNA is anyone's guess.

Iceresistance wrote:We're all watching the PNA, Heat Miser is trying to make it either more Positive or Negative than Neutral!

Extreme model consistency for the AO & NAO to become Negative, & the PNA for the next few days, but after that for the PNA is anyone's guess.

PNA is the one to watch next week.

I haven't had much time to look at the data but at a quick glance the iss looks to be a less than ideal EPO. Hard to drive cold air south down the Plains without a solid -EPO especially this early in the season. The --NAO will give a storm to someone but that someone is likely NE of Texas.

CMC 3rd run in a row to feature snow in the same general time frame for the Southern Plains

wxman57 wrote:

gpsnowman wrote:

gpsnowman wrote:

Hey Gorby, tear down your wall!!!! The unification of the Arctic and south Texas is inevitable.

My wall is stronger than ever this year. Nothing will penetrate it (barring a fire-breathing dragon...).

http://wxman57.com/images/wall.JPG

After the way your “wall” performed in February, I’d probably ask for my money back.

Big snowstorm up here Thanksgiving Night into Friday on the Euro

It's 9 days out, fellas. With that said, as stated yesterday, the models are going to produce runs where large trough dig much further south due to the blocking. Def something to watch.

A bit more ensemble support today for the 12z Euro solution. I remain skeptical, simple b/c this is more an El Nino looking storm system at 192 but the higher heights across the Great Lakes seem to support the solution. (Side bar - Can anyone point to a paper that discusses the climatology of cool season cutoff lows in the SW US?)



Also, given the nature of the blocking in the NAO region, I wouldn't be surprise to see this take a more southerly track vs. cutting towards the Ohio Valley, if it were to verify at 192.

So should I go ahead and cancel the bounce house for the 27th?

18z GFS has jumped with the 12z Euro for the Cold, but no Snow yet.



And it's only November

KWTV is "Watching this closely"

KFOR is calling it with highs near Freezing with Snow Thanksgiving Day & Black Friday.

I think and hope this first block near Greenland can cause chaos in the arctic for sometime.

I would not be surprised at all to see the trends toward a powerhouse storm around Thanksgiving.

Big -NAO retrogression will allow storms to dig and really wind up since it slows the flow down dramatically. We've already seen some potent systems swing out (remember the severe weather outbreaks this fall?) with numerous wind warnings and advisories the past month or two. What this tells us is the background environment is favoring deepening systems as they come out of the west. And for the most part, at varying intervals, the west NAO blocking regime hasn't really left.

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:I think and hope this first block near Greenland can cause chaos in the arctic for sometime.

Yes, the GEFS is showing an Extremely Negative NAO for quite some time

Ntxw wrote:I would not be surprised at all to see the trends toward a powerhouse storm around Thanksgiving.

Big -NAO retrogression will allow storms to dig and really wind up since it slows the flow down dramatically. We've already seen some potent systems swing out (remember the severe weather outbreaks this fall?) with numerous wind warnings and advisories the past month or two. What this tells us is the background environment is favoring deepening systems as they come out of the west. And for the most part, at varying intervals, the west NAO blocking regime hasn't really left.

It’s beginning to look like someone’s wall is showing serious cracks….