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Re: Texas Summer 2016
Posted: Fri Aug 19, 2016 1:31 pm
by weatherdude1108
Portastorm wrote:Ntxw wrote:Many areas of Texas (including Dallas, Houston, Austin) have seen and will finish will a wetter than normal summer (June-August). In some cases double last summer, which was an El Nino go figure right? For most it was warmer to slightly warmer than normal however August will cut some of that down. Overall I'd give this summer a B grade. Not the coolest or best summer but there has been many much worst. The dog days ran from about the last 2 weeks of July to the first week of August, about 3 weeks of torture not too bad.
I would generally agree with your grade,
Ntxw. However for those of us south of Waco, the summer "dog days" really kicked in around July 4th and didn't end until this past week. We had a good 4-5 weeks of brutal heat and triple digit high temps. Yes, it could have been (and has been) much worse. No complaints here.
Well put Porta! Yeah, those north of Waco got off easier with Texas' Summer's wrath this year.
Re: Texas Summer 2016
Posted: Fri Aug 19, 2016 1:36 pm
by JayDT
Does anyone know how long this wet weather pattern we're in right now might last?
Re: Texas Summer 2016
Posted: Fri Aug 19, 2016 2:26 pm
by South Texas Storms
JayDT wrote:Does anyone know how long this wet weather pattern we're in right now might last?
The latest models are indicating that it could last into next week!
Re: Texas Summer 2016
Posted: Fri Aug 19, 2016 2:54 pm
by Brent
South Texas Storms wrote:JayDT wrote:Does anyone know how long this wet weather pattern we're in right now might last?
The latest models are indicating that it could last into next week!
It looks like we get maybe a couple sunny days(highs around 90) mid-week and then another front for next weekend that will probably hang around up here around DFW. GFS not showing any kind of prolonged hot/dry weather and nothing above low 90s.
Re: Texas Summer 2016
Posted: Fri Aug 19, 2016 4:19 pm
by weatherdude1108
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
403 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday)...
...Flash and river flooding becoming an increasing concern this
weekend due to heavy rainfall potential...
Focus will center on the weekend time frame where widespread heavy
rain could lead to flash and river flooding across the Rio Grande
Plains, Southern Edwards Plateau, and portions of the Hill
Country. Highest rainfall amounts in this area will likely be in
the 4-6 inch range with isolated totals up to 10 inches Saturday
morning through Monday morning. The most significant time frame
for the heaviest rainfall appears to be Saturday evening through
mid-day Sunday. The hazardous weather outlook as been updated to
reflect this increasing risk and updated graphics have been posted.
For today, isolated showers are ongoing across the Coastal Plains
with additional activity near the Val Verde/Mexico border. The
Plains activity will wane into the evening but activity our west
will persist through much of the evening and overnight. Pockets of
heavy rainfall could occur with 1-2 inches possible. Showers
should weaken through early Saturday morning but will shift east
into the Hill Country and towards San Antonio.
The ingredients for a heavy rain and flooding impact event will
begin to come together late Saturday afternoon as a weak boundary
sags south towards the Hill Country. A tropical airmass will be in
place as 2-2.4 PWATs and 0-1km 16 g/kg mixing ratios will be in
place with several lifting and low-level convergence mechanisms to
generate heavy rainfall. A mid-level Pacific tropical wave will
merge with a weak trough in this moist environment coinciding with
the surface boundary near the Hill Country vicinity through Sunday
morning. Positive southerly flow theta-e advection and increasing
low-level flow will likely aid in ample moisture supply into
these lifting dynamics. All-told, this can result in pockets of
very heavy rainfall and storm training amounting to 4-6 inches
with pockets up to 10 inches. The main model consensus of heaviest
rainfall keeps the highest totals west and north of the Metro
areas. However, both Austin and San Antonio could see 2-4 inches
over the entire weekend. The EC is farther north and east with
highest rainfall totals with GEM over the Hill Country and
GFS/NAM closer to the South Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains.
The going rainfall graphics online are a consensus of these
signals with slightly stronger weight towards the GFS/NAM/GEM
given their run-to-run evolutions.
River and creek flooding could be a substantial risk across the
Rio, Nueces, Frio and possibly the upper reaches of the
Guadalupe, Medina, Pedernales rivers through the weekend and into
early next week.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday through Friday)...
Rain coverage will decrease Sunday night into Monday morning but
scattered showers and storms should still linger given continued
mid- and upper-level weak divergence and south flow still feeding
into the boundary stalled north of the area. Additional showers
and storms are expected Monday but should be more scattered in
nature. These however, could still worsen flooding issues from
the weekend rains. Tuesday should have even less coverage to only
the Coastal Plains as the boundary washes out north and the area
remains in a subtle mid-level weakness. Sub-tropical ridging will
slowly build into the area Wednesday through late week with only
some coastal sea-breeze showers.
Re: Texas Summer 2016
Posted: Fri Aug 19, 2016 5:50 pm
by vbhoutex
Brent wrote:South Texas Storms wrote:JayDT wrote:Does anyone know how long this wet weather pattern we're in right now might last?
The latest models are indicating that it could last into next week!
It looks like we get maybe a couple sunny days(highs around 90) mid-week and then another front for next weekend that will probably hang around up here around DFW. GFS not showing any kind of prolonged hot/dry weather and nothing above low 90s.
Geez!!
At least one OCM in Houston is showing 98f for Monday!!
I could do without rain for several days(7 in a row with the least amount 0.40", highest 4.25"), but really don't want the heat to come back!!
Re: Texas Summer 2016
Posted: Fri Aug 19, 2016 7:40 pm
by South Texas Storms
I don't think we will be near 98F on Monday in the Houston area. It seems like a high in the lower 90s is more likely, along with more scattered showers and storms across the region.
Re: Texas Summer 2016
Posted: Fri Aug 19, 2016 7:59 pm
by TexasBreeze
I don't see upper 90's either for the Hou area next week. The se US ridge isn't the strongest for TX and lower maybe mid 90's will be enough for scattered storms each day. That same ridge could be very important for happenings on 99l for the future time.....
Re: Texas Summer 2016
Posted: Fri Aug 19, 2016 8:04 pm
by Ntxw
With the 2.14" of rain DFW picked up today that's over 3.15" or so for the month. This is the first since 2004 that all three meteorological summer months have seen 3" or greater of rainfall. If DFW can pick up another ~2" of rain the next week then it would be in the top 10 wettest summers.
Needless to say, far cry from the drought of 2007-2014 period. Not coincidentally the +PDO/El Nino combo has certainly flipped everything. The Pacific controls our climate, hard to argue the very strong evidence.
Re: Texas Summer 2016
Posted: Fri Aug 19, 2016 8:07 pm
by Brent
Ntxw wrote:With the 2.14" of rain DFW picked up today that's over 3.15" or so for the month. This is the first since 2004 that all three meteorological summer months have seen 3" or greater of rainfall. If DFW can pick up another ~2" of rain the next week then it would be in the top 10 wettest summers.
What a lovely evening it has been. My phone briefly reported 69 degrees and I had to open the door just to feel it...
Weatherbug not showing any 90s for DFW in the 10 day!
Oh and the HRRR and 4km NAM have a stormy morning tomorrow...
Re: Texas Summer 2016
Posted: Fri Aug 19, 2016 8:20 pm
by Ntxw
Brent wrote:Oh and the HRRR and 4km NAM have a stormy morning tomorrow...
The cluster of storms in NW Texas now should be the catalyst overnight to kick up more storms as it approaches with the cold front
Re: Texas Summer 2016
Posted: Sat Aug 20, 2016 11:01 am
by Ntxw
Re: Texas Summer 2016
Posted: Sat Aug 20, 2016 11:49 am
by TexasF6
There is a Landocane spinning towards Austin!!!!
Re: Texas Summer 2016
Posted: Sat Aug 20, 2016 2:17 pm
by Brent
I've been at work today and seen people wearing warm clothes! Winter is coming.
Re: Texas Summer 2016
Posted: Sat Aug 20, 2016 3:52 pm
by Portastorm
TexasF6 wrote:There is a Landocane spinning towards Austin!!!!
Per NWS and NOAA's WPC, the Austin-San Antonio corridor is poised to be on the brunt end of a major if not catastrophic flood event. Everyone along the I-35 corridor down here needs to be alert for the latest warnings. This one looks rather scary at the moment.
Re: Texas Summer 2016
Posted: Sat Aug 20, 2016 4:09 pm
by TheAustinMan
TexasF6 wrote:There is a Landocane spinning towards Austin!!!!
Raining very heavily down here in Southwest Austin with that system spinning through. One of the few times a batch of rain increased in intensity as it passed by.
Re: Texas Summer 2016
Posted: Sat Aug 20, 2016 4:34 pm
by gboudx
From jeff:
Yet another heavy rainfall event for TX over the next 24-36 hours.
Factors are in place to produce an excessive rainfall event tonight into Sunday across portions of central TX possibly as far east as our western and northern counties which have just been included in a Flash Flood Watch. A stalling frontal boundary, surface trough/warm core surface low WSW of Austin and copious moisture with PWS of 2.2-2.5 inches all support the development and slow movement of a well organized MCS over SW/C TX this evening which will likely continue into much of the night and into Sunday. Significant rainfall is likely along the I-35 corridor tonight which may result in rapid flash flooding of small creek and rivers.
Main question is how far east and south this organized heavy rainfall moves into SE TX. Models generally keep the heaviest rainfall near our western border into Sunday morning and this is certainly possible given the expected slow storm motions and 500-200mb ridging attempting to build over SE TX from the ESE. However as we have seen with many of these events, the meso scale (outflow boundaries) like to take over and drive convection to the east and south many times deeper into SE TX. Additionally, the deeper moisture channel will be across a larger part of SE TX on Sunday and with heating and boundaries approaching from the N and W the chances for heavy rainfall may move deeper into the region.
High rain chances look to continue into Monday before upper level ridging briefly builds over the region Tuesday and Wednesday. A strong mid level trough approaches the central US late next week and may drive yet another front into the state with increasing rain chances again. Also tropical wave 99L will be likely nearing the Lesser Antilles at this same time and the approaching mid/upper level trough will likely result in strong downstream ridging over the US east coast possibly keeping 99L moving on a more W or WNW course just north of the Caribbean Islands. Latest global models are showing some weak consistency in the development of 99L somewhere in and near the Bahamas toward the end of next week.
Re: Texas Summer 2016
Posted: Sat Aug 20, 2016 6:04 pm
by KatDaddy
If you have family, friends, and co-workers in San Antonio-Austin areas, please make sure they are weather aware. You are in for an interesting 24 hours Porta. Hoping a warm core event does not unfold.
Re: Texas Summer 2016
Posted: Sat Aug 20, 2016 7:16 pm
by Brent
Pete Delkus @wfaaweather 31m31 minutes ago
DFW's 10 day forecast has nothing higher than 92°. That's stunning for the end of August
Tick tock... the clock is running out on summer...
Re: Texas Summer 2016
Posted: Sat Aug 20, 2016 8:34 pm
by TheProfessor
Hello everyone, I just moved into my dorm today. I will be starting my first met class in a few days so I'm super excited.
I finally tried The Blue Danube that Porta told me about a year ago and it was really good, It was only the 2nd Diner I've been to but it's the best one so far.
