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Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2020 11:16 am
by Tireman4
Tireman4 wrote:Portastorm wrote:Cpv17 wrote:
Hoping this comes in as a strong ts or cat 1 anywhere between Matagorda and Corpus. Not looking likely atm though.
We'd love a intensity/track like that too if it ends up being a rainmaker for South Central Texas.
Porta...I was just reading the Tropical Storm Don thread in 2011. Gosh, you were not a happy camper. LOL. Back to this thread, lots of model runs to sift through in the upcoming days. Dont look now, but could Laura come our (your way) way....stay tuned gang. We have a mystery to solve.
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2020 11:16 am
by Portastorm
Tireman4 wrote:Portastorm wrote:Cpv17 wrote:
Hoping this comes in as a strong ts or cat 1 anywhere between Matagorda and Corpus. Not looking likely atm though.
We'd love a intensity/track like that too if it ends up being a rainmaker for South Central Texas.
Porta...I was just reading the Tropical Storm Don thread in 2011. Gosh, you were not a happy camper. LOL. Back to this thread, lots of model runs to sift through in the upcoming days. Dont look now, but could Laura come our (your way)....stay tuned gang. We have a mystery to solve.
What did you just say?! What did you say??!! You mentioned THAT year didn't you? Dang it Tireman ... I may have to suspend your account now. You know how I feel about that year ... a year which must never be mentioned again.
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2020 11:17 am
by Tireman4
Portastorm wrote:Tireman4 wrote:Portastorm wrote:
We'd love a intensity/track like that too if it ends up being a rainmaker for South Central Texas.
Porta...I was just reading the Tropical Storm Don thread in 2011. Gosh, you were not a happy camper. LOL. Back to this thread, lots of model runs to sift through in the upcoming days. Dont look now, but could Laura come our (your way)....stay tuned gang. We have a mystery to solve.
What did you just say?! What did you say??!! You mentioned THAT year didn't you? Dang it Tireman ... I may have to suspend your account now. You know how I feel about that year ... a year which must never be mentioned again.
Oops, I apologize. Please accept my apologies. I hope your Brownies win it all sir.
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2020 3:49 pm
by Brent
That angle looks better for rainfall but let's see what it happens I'm still concerned about some weird fujiwhara with Laura and it gets shoved into Louisiana
Although if Laura doesn't stop shifting west it may be in Texas before long too
the EPS mean has gone from east of New Orleans to almost the Texas border since yesterday
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2020 4:37 pm
by Cpv17
Well I think we can all say that this weather isn’t boring at least!
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2020 5:30 pm
by Brent
Cpv17 wrote:Well I think we can all say that this weather isn’t boring at least!
GFS is almost in Texas with Laura on Thursday
14/Marco is down more in middle Texas on Tuesday
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2020 9:51 pm
by Cpv17
18z Euro ensembles are downright scary for Texas regarding Laura.
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2020 11:40 pm
by Brent
Cpv17 wrote:18z Euro ensembles are downright scary for Texas regarding Laura.
the UKMET Is pretty much a major into Corpus Christi
what a turn of events today... it was this date in 2017 the GFS first showed a dead Harvey slamming the coast and now here we are...
its a tad creepy
of course the Euro is in Louisiana but the Euro has been really struggling with this one(Marco goes into Galveston)
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 6:54 am
by weatherdude1108
Mid/upper level disturbances this morning from Central Texas triggered strong thunderstorms this morning here. We have gotten over a half inch since 6am. Ran down to garage to shut off sprinkler system.
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 8:14 am
by Haris
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 8:35 am
by utpmg
Woke up to a bunch of thunder and lightning around 6:30 here on the east side. Nearby sites reporting about an inch, but even better is a steady 69 degrees. And I can skip my scheduled watering morning!
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:14 am
by Shoshana
Lightning and a good soaker here. Watching the storm on radar, it seemed like it had a less intense slice and that’s what we got. It was a good, except for the freaked out dog.
Dog woke me at 5:30 to tell me it was coming.
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:34 am
by Cpv17
Man, these models are flip flopping bad!!
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:57 am
by rwfromkansas
This is why I haven’t gotten excited. Two tropical systems and both will screw DFW.
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 1:28 pm
by Cpv17
Well I’m just about ready to throw in the towel on these two systems. Thought for sure we’d get some rain here. Frustrated now
my original prediction of LA now looks accurate, unfortunately.
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 1:32 pm
by Shoshana
The two systems have forecasters look like they are consulting a metronome....
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:43 pm
by Brent
I'm going to assume if the models are right today and we get screwed the heat will probably come back worse than ever
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 7:06 pm
by JDawg512
Great rain this morning with about an inch. Disappointed that Marco has shifted farther east. Could really use that rain for this region considering we are moving into La Niña.
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 7:10 pm
by Haris
While the trends are not good, too early to be sure. Laura is still many days out. You saw how quick Marco's forecast changed... same could happen to Laura's... further, there are models that bring Laura as far as Browsville. Still anyone's game.
Got 1.3" of rain this morning! Small dime sized hail too. Rained for a good 4-5 hours.
Re: Texas Summer 2020
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 8:54 pm
by Brent
Haris wrote:While the trends are not good, too early to be sure. Laura is still many days out. You saw how quick Marco's forecast changed... same could happen to Laura's... further, there are models that bring Laura as far as Browsville. Still anyone's game.
Got 1.3" of rain this morning! Small dime sized hail too. Rained for a good 4-5 hours.
Yeah that's a good point about Laura we don't even know where the final center is gonna be yet so things can still change although I do agree trends are not good
And to be honest Marco was so small I'm not really sure he would have been a big rain event anyway especially when it looked like he was gonna heavily sheared at landfall in Texas
Many of the models barely had a signal compared to what Laura might be so we'll see what happens
Right on cue both the GFS and Ukmet hit Galveston who knows how far west they could go by Wednesday honestly lol
