STORM2K

Man, the heavens opened up on me in NW Houston. I'm guessing this is the beginning of a crappy weekend. I know we still could use the rain, but it could have held off a few days.

SoupBone wrote:Man, the heavens opened up on me in NW Houston. I'm guessing this is the beginning of a crappy weekend. I know we still could use the rain, but it could have held off a few days.

It’s been missing me down here for the most part. I’m sure that’ll change tomorrow though.

Cpv17 wrote:

SoupBone wrote:Man, the heavens opened up on me in NW Houston. I'm guessing this is the beginning of a crappy weekend. I know we still could use the rain, but it could have held off a few days.

It’s been missing me down here for the most part. I’m sure that’ll change tomorrow though.

Looks like the rain is mostly offshore this morning.

Most models are backing off with the rain and showing the dry air taking over after today. Best place in Texas that might get some decent rain might be McAllen Tx area and that extreme south west region of Texas near the border where the dry air may not reach. Everyone else get ready for a big disappointment.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0928
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1030 AM EDT Sat Sep 03 2022

Areas affected...Central TX coast...LA coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031428Z - 032028Z

Summary...Thunderstorm activity continues to blossom this morning
along the Western and Central Gulf Coast as a surface trough
drifts ashore. Very efficient warm rainfall processes will support
rainfall rates upwards of 2-3" per hour, which could cause flash
flooding through the afternoon.

Discussion...Morning radar mosaic and GOES-16 IR imagery depict a
swath of widespread thunderstorm activity with 1-2.5" rainfall
rates along the Texas and Louisiana coast associated with a
surface trough along the coast. The airmass along the coast is
primed to support efficient rainfall production; 12z CRP, LCH, and
LIX soundings depict "tall and skinny" CAPE profiles with
2500-3000 J/kg MUCAPE, PWATs of 2.2-2.3", and warm cloud layers
exceeding 10,000 feet. 850-300 mb flow is at most 5 kts, resulting
in near stationary convection barring any propagation from the
surface trough and random outflow collisions. With insolation
evident on GOES-16 visible imagery, expect an uptick in convective
coverage over the next few hours, where rates up to 3" per hour
are possible.

3 hour FFGs vary across the area (generally 2.5-3" in Texas and
3-4" in Lousiana), which could be breached by the slow moving
activity as the 3-HR HREF PMM QPF advertises localized rain totals
of 4". Accordingly, HREF guidance shows increasing probabilities
of 1 and 3 HR FFG exceedance (particularly over Southeast Texas),
which suggests a scattered flash flood threat through the
afternoon.

Asherman

ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

Clearcloudz wrote:Most models are backing off with the rain and showing the dry air taking over after today. Best place in Texas that might get some decent rain might be McAllen Tx area and that extreme south west region of Texas near the border where the dry air may not reach. Everyone else get ready for a big disappointment.

https://i.imgur.com/2DHsqbr.gif

Models are struggling with the upcoming pattern. WPAC recurve plus an EPAC system that might recurve into the SW or might not. I expect to see a lot of model flipping over the next few days. The downstream impacts of the WPAC will play a role in the eventual track of the EPAC system. If it does get pulled into the SW then look for models to start highlighting the potential for a big Texas rain event.

Clearcloudz wrote:Most models are backing off with the rain and showing the dry air taking over after today. Best place in Texas that might get some decent rain might be McAllen Tx area and that extreme south west region of Texas near the border where the dry air may not reach. Everyone else get ready for a big disappointment.

https://i.imgur.com/2DHsqbr.gif

Yeah I started noticing this possibly a couple of days ago when the WPC started to decrease totals across our area and kept the bulk of the rain offshore.

I know this is a Texas forum but I wanted to share a article that I just recently was reading a few days ago about the Tonga Volcanic eruption and how it injected so much water into the Earth's atmosphere to the point where it could weaken the ozone layer. I have a strong feeling that this had something to do with all of the extreme heat going on all over the world including Europe and impacted our hurricane season in the Atlantic.

https://www.livescience.com/tonga-eruption-water-vapor

Rain starting to pop off over Houston.

I'm glad I had that rain the other day because yeah I don't like how much hot and dry I'm seeing... Again the front/rain next weekend that looked good has totally vanished. Sounds like the hurricane season everything interesting has been at day 10

Brent wrote:I'm glad I had that rain the other day because yeah I don't like how much hot and dry I'm seeing... Again the front/rain next weekend that looked good has totally vanished. Sounds like the hurricane season everything interesting has been at day 10

Nothing compared to July though.

Death Valley, CA reached 127°F yesterday and could break that record again.

Raining here now. Local flood advisory.

Gettting a quick hitting thunder shower right now. Nice little surprise.

Got almost 0.5". About 0.45"

Looks like the north side of SA got some downpours. There was a flood advisory down there.

My dad and two brothers in SA said they got 0.9" to 2" at their respective houses, and still raining. Happy for them!

weatherdude1108 wrote:My dad and two brothers in SA said they got 0.9" to 2" at their respective houses, and still raining. Happy for them!

Yep, they finally cashed in! My parents also had close to 2 inches today. Much needed and thankful!

Unexpected storms this morning gave me .4 inches of rain.

The rain missed my hood yesterday, litterally blocks away. They just didn't really move much, rather they pulsed then faded. As soon as I saw development south, I knew it was over.

Yea a bit disappointing when just a couple of days ago, the forecast had daily rain chances into next weekend. Now most of the week looks quiet...

Some thunderstorms along the Red River moving south. Might hold together enough with some chances tomorrow.

The EPAC recurve forecast seems to have gone on the wayside instead moving up the Pacific Coast of Mexico, no good there at the moment. Always nervous about mid to late season Atlantic activity enforcing subsidence. It's not always about ridge and troughs or the TCs, just when one area is favored for rising motion the regions to the left and to the right favors subsidence. Seen too many rain forecast qpf busts over the years from it.

SOI the past week or so rose a lot after that major dive in mid-late August.

Just looked at the NWS forecast. Nothing higher than 20% chances for rain through next Saturday (was 40% here for Labor Day as of earlier this morning's forecast). Some days don't have any rain forecast.

What a complete switcharoo suddenly. Our lakes rose a foot I think, still several feet below normal, although the soils are in better shape.

But I'm really hoping this pattern doesn't revert to the tinder dry and erase all our improvements, given we still have evil La Nina lurking over us. Sucks. I'm thankful for the rain received, but still bummed.

I have a feeling the CPC forecasts tomorrow will be changed to a warmer drier regime. Guess I'll have to wash the car now.lol

Whatever happens, I'm looking forward to the next wet period!