STORM2K

Thus far, this has been one of the greyest Florida falls I've ever seen.

We could use the rain from that storm, the cold front that passed through Naples yesterday snapped a 3-4 week long rainless streak

00z GFS… Nasty weather coming to FL

gatorcane wrote:GFS 10mb winds:
https://i.postimg.cc/1X9NCHkC/gfs-mslp-wind-seus-fh96-168.gif

The last event overachieved in the wind department, precip was modeled very well.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1734561027965034626

 https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/1734594268411707857

NWS Miami forecasting wind gusts to 60mph along the coast of SE Florida Thu night

SE florida is going to get creamed. This is yet another excellent heavy rain set up down that way. I expect someone gets a double digit total. If we get a good low with a warm front...some severe potential may evolve ..maybe some spinners somewhere on the peninsula

This is going to be a good one!

Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/WbyqTm2X/ecmwf-z850-vort-seus-fh72-126-1.gif [/url]
This is going to be a good one!

.22 so far at my place, double digits needed to compete with the last event

12Z runs are in and the GFS and Euro continue to maintain their north-south disparity, but both are displaced farther north than their runs earlier in the week. GFS takes the low into the Panhandle through Tallahassee and Euro now brings the low right in over Tampa Bay. Seems that much of Florida may experience near-tropical storm or tropical storm-level conditions, especially Saturday into Sunday with a gusty NE fetch setting up in the days preceding landfall.

This is going to be quite the system. With the more northerly track the entire peninsula will cash in on wind, rain and severe risk. Very curious to see how severe risk evolves and how high the marine winds get...will any storm warnings be needed for nearshore/offshore waters? Things to watch for..

So far this weather doesn’t warrant a flood watch because it rained yesterday morning and has been drizzling on and off since. The wind is impressive outside of hurricane season gusts to 45 along the east coast.

Still no agreement from the models at 12Z Thursday - GFS insists on the low tracking into the Panhandle, putting all of the peninsula in the warm sector while Euro brings the low into the Tampa Bay area again, leaving only SFL and south-central Florida in the warm sector.

Coastal flood watches from the bay area up to the big bend are well placed. The big bathtub is gonna slosh

I don't care how big the cruise ship, this certainly would NOT be the weekend that I'd want to leave from practically any Florida port (as my sister/brother in law are down in Miami)
There's just not enough pressure point wrist bands and Dramamine to make those open water conditions tolerable.

Models finally starting to converge on the low track with the GFS now south of previous positions coming in around Crystal River while the Euro has moved north a tad to Pasco/Hernando County, so the Nature Coast looks like the spot meaning the Tampa Bay area will be in the warm, wild sector.

The more northerly track of the low relative to earlier expectations reduces the risk of extreme rain over southeast FL but increases the risk of svr wx over the entire peninsula. A decent tornado risk may develop somewhere over the peninsula. Between heavy rain, svr potential, strong gradient winds and associated marine hazards/coastal flooding...this will be quite a weather event. Pure Nino delivering the goods during what is normally a meteorological boring time of year. We will probably get more of these events this winter.

Broad cyclonic turning starting to take shape over the Bay of Campeche.

psyclone wrote:The more northerly track of the low relative to earlier expectations reduces the risk of extreme rain over southeast FL but increases the risk of svr wx over the entire peninsula. A decent tornado risk may develop somewhere over the peninsula. Between heavy rain, svr potential, strong gradient winds and associated marine hazards/coastal flooding...this will be quite a weather event. Pure Nino delivering the goods during what is normally a meteorological boring time of year. We will probably get more of these events this winter.

The gfs and euro still offering up different solutions, SPC brought a higher risk south which was interesting to see. Big-time dynamics coming together tomorrow and riding up the EC. Missed opportunity for our friends to the north for a blizzard and really not much cold air to be found for the balance of 2023 to produce big snows. January 7th for a Chicago blizzard would be ideal .