STORM2K

Tomorrow around here we get what I call the "Flagstaff effect" as a cold night rebounds to a very warm day to start a warming trend. We should see close to a 30 degree jump from the chilly morning low to the afternoon high. These are some of my favorite days during the cold season. Warm & humid by the weekend...could see some sea fog over the northeast gulf as high dewpoint air advects over what are now cold shelf waters.

psyclone wrote:Tomorrow around here we get what I call the "Flagstaff effect" as a cold night rebounds to a very warm day to start a warming trend. We should see close to a 30 degree jump from the chilly morning low to the afternoon high. These are some of my favorite days during the cold season. Warm & humid by the weekend...could see some sea fog over the northeast gulf as high dewpoint air advects over what are now cold shelf waters.

That's a solid analysis. Just to add to that, the high pressure that was centered over much of northern Florida that was advecting the cold, continental air will be moving offshore the Atlantic later tomorrow. This will cause onshore flow from the (still relatively) warm GOM like you stated:


On top of that, the jet stream will start to lift north by Friday (and fracture, with some interaction from the left exit region of the southern streak and the right entrance of the northern streak):


This will allow for significant precipitable water amounts (for this time of year anyways) to be present along the gulf coast starting on Friday-Sunday. It won't take much instability to get heavy training of rain bands or some thunderstorms forming:


Climatology of precipitable water in Tallahassee (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundingclimov2/):


This has led to a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms in SPC outlook:

psyclone wrote:Tomorrow around here we get what I call the "Flagstaff effect" as a cold night rebounds to a very warm day to start a warming trend. We should see close to a 30 degree jump from the chilly morning low to the afternoon high. These are some of my favorite days during the cold season. Warm & humid by the weekend...could see some sea fog over the northeast gulf as high dewpoint air advects over what are now cold shelf waters.

Looks like the low in Tampa only made it down to 51 so we'll have to settle for a 25-degree jump today

Yes I remember those sea fog days when I lived in Pinellas County. Sometimes that fog could get thick. Looks like we are back to a summer-like pattern this weekend with higher humidity, above normal temps, and SE wind flow along with some coastal Atlantic showers. Then another front swings through later this week bringing back below normal temps for a couple of days.

We may have a major problem for Jacksonville, FL


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/Si2UA.png

Iceresistance wrote:We may have a major problem for Jacksonville, FL

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/Si2UA.png
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/Si2UA.png

(Aware of the self-reply)

No tornado touched down over Jacksonville

 https://twitter.com/PaulFox13/status/1732091498395550155

Looks like next weekend, the GFS and Euro show another El Niño low forming in the Gulf and moving NE across the FL peninsula. The weather could get quite interesting, stay tuned.

GFS track (18Z):



Euro track (12Z):

WPC already giving metro se FL 3-5"+ on their 7 day map. Parched west central coast still bullseye screw zone. Interesting weather looks likely for someone...

psyclone wrote:WPC already giving metro se FL 3-5"+ on their 7 day map. Parched west central coast still bullseye screw zone. Interesting weather looks likely for someone...

Looks similiar to the last event but more progressive.

Strong line of storms is moving toward the nature coast and tampa bay area from the gulf. I'm excited to hear some thunder and get a an actual legit downpour! Let it rip!

It looks like we are in for almost the same rain event we had back in the middle of November with up to 5” of rain and winds gusting up to 45 to 50 mph.

boca wrote:It looks like we are in for almost the same rain event we had back in the middle of November with up to 5” of rain and winds gusting up to 45 to 50 mph.

El nino action, feels like there is a windchill this afternoon.

Models certainly interesting this evening:

12Z Euro:


18Z GFS:

GFS 10mb winds:

Interesting model runs indeed, some posts also in the FL weather thread on this potential El Niño storm: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... tart=17460

gatorcane wrote:Interesting model runs indeed, some posts also in the FL weather thread on this potential El Niño storm: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... tart=17460

Yeah, seems like a possibility.

12z ECMWF