Texas Fall 2023

[tajmahal]

No glacial cap on this one. It should just be local effects.

Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines had a years–long effect on global temperatures even though there waa no ice there.

Pinatubo is a stratovolcano, the anticipated eruption in Iceland is of the fissure nature.

Doesn't matter.

[HockeyTx82]

Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines had a years–long effect on global temperatures even though there waa no ice there.

Pinatubo is a stratovolcano, the anticipated eruption in Iceland is of the fissure nature.

Doesn't matter.

A fissure and a stratovolcano are two different types of volcanic features that have different effects on the atmosphere. A fissure is a long crack in the ground from which lava erupts, usually in a non-explosive way. A stratovolcano is a steep-sided cone-shaped volcano that erupts explosively, sending ash and gas high into the air. Here are some of the main differences between them:

Fissure eruptions are usually effusive, meaning they produce flowing lava rather than explosive blasts. Stratovolcano eruptions are usually explosive, meaning they produce pyroclastic material such as ash, lapilli, bombs, and blocks that can travel far and fast.
Fissure eruptions typically occur along divergent plate boundaries, where tectonic plates are moving apart.

Stratovolcano eruptions typically occur along convergent plate boundaries, where tectonic plates are colliding and one plate is subducting under another.

Fissure eruptions are often associated with basaltic magma, which has low viscosity and low gas content. Stratovolcano eruptions are often associated with andesitic or rhyolitic magma, which has high viscosity and high gas content.

Fissure eruptions tend to form shield volcanoes, which have gentle slopes and broad bases. Stratovolcano eruptions tend to form composite volcanoes, which have steep slopes and narrow bases.

Fissure eruptions have less impact on the atmosphere than stratovolcano eruptions, because they release less gas and ash. Stratovolcano eruptions can have significant impact on the atmosphere, because they release large amounts of gas and ash that can affect climate, weather, and aviation.

[bubba hotep]

12z models are pretty bleah. The Euro Weeklies continue to advertise a return of a broader wet pattern, just like that have been since mid-September...

[BTAYLOR5021]

Next 15 days shows consistent cool temps in DFW. Rarely see this. Could this possibly be due to El Niño?

[Brent]

12z models are pretty bleah. The Euro Weeklies continue to advertise a return of a broader wet pattern, just like that have been since mid-September...

Still waiting for that SOI to do something. Anything this fall has been nothing like I expected with rainfall

I mean yeah it looks below normal at least which is still better but way too dry

[Cpv17]

Seems like these above normal precipitation forecasts the CPC keeps putting out for us never pans out. A decent rain is so hard to get these days.

[mmmmsnouts]

Getting really concerned about the long, long term. If we can't get out of this drought cycle even with an El Nino going on, and we head towards a third straight horrendous summer, and knowing it probably gets even worse from there... we may have to start asking if Texas will still be habitable a generation from now.

[Brent]

Well our TV met is bullish about winter up here. Way more snow than last year

What can go wrong

[bubba hotep]

Well our TV met is bullish about winter up here. Way more snow than last year

What can go wrong

I'm still hopeful. All signs point towards a Strong Nion type winter, even if things have been delayed a bit on the precipitation side. However, precipitation is following 87-88 pretty closely. There were two winter wx events in early '88 but, overall, that Nino never really delivered any substantial rains with '88 only registering 22" at DFW.

[Ntxw]

Well our TV met is bullish about winter up here. Way more snow than last year

What can go wrong

I'm still hopeful. All signs point towards a Strong Nion type winter, even if things have been delayed a bit on the precipitation side. However, precipitation is following 87-88 pretty closely. There were two winter wx events in early '88 but, overall, that Nino never really delivered any substantial rains with '88 only registering 22" at DFW.

-PDO is quite stubborn. Hard to fight long-term trends, admittedly got to accept this is -PDO regime like 2008-2013 period.

[Gotwood]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=i-a8JNEfIrg

[Brent]

Looking like a very close call here Saturday Night... Possibly some significant snow along the Kansas border

[tajmahal]

ECMWF forecast temperatures for Sunday, November 26:
44–24...Amarillo
57–44...Austin Camp Mabry
53–40...Dallas
42–15...Denver
44–27...Oklahoma City
44–32...Tulsa
B23–B46...Verkhoyansk, Siberia, Russia

GEM forecast temperatures for Sunday, November 26:
39–17...Amarillo
53–38...Austin Camp Mabry
44–31...Dallas
35–04...Denver
33–19...Oklahoma City
37–22...Tulsa
B27–B37...Verkhoyansk, Siberia, Russia

GFS forecast temperatures for Sunday, November 26:
44–25...Amarillo
60–49...Austin Camp Mabry
57–47...Dallas
38–27...Denver
44–29...Oklahoma City
46–33...Tulsa
B33–B51...Verkhoyansk, Siberia, Russia

[Quixotic]

I’d slow my roll on drought continuing. It’s gonna be an El Niño and it’s going to rain. Just a matter of when. I’m bullish on this winter but we may have to wait until mid to late December for it to pan out. Eager to see where MJO forcing sets up.

[cheezyWXguy]

I’d slow my roll on drought continuing. It’s gonna be an El Niño and it’s going to rain. Just a matter of when. I’m bullish on this winter but we may have to wait until mid to late December for it to pan out. Eager to see where MJO forcing sets up.

I’m hoping for at least a wet second half of winter and first half of spring, though I’m keeping my expectations in check. If we don’t at least get that I am pretty concerned for next summer. I’ll take whatever severe weather comes along between now and then if it means heavy rainfall comes with it

[rwfromkansas]

Looks like much of KS will get a first decent snow in years this weekend. Wish I was back home. Lol.

GFS says a foot currently. Wow.

[Brent]

Looks like much of KS will get a first decent snow in years this weekend. Wish I was back home. Lol.

GFS says a foot currently. Wow.

Yeah I'm very curious to see how that plays out and it wouldn't take much of a shift to get some notable snow here. There's definitely been a trend in this direction since yesterday whether it actually fully gets there or not remains to be seen

But regardless whether it does or not here maybe that's a good sign for winter if the higher totals do pan out in Kansas

[rwfromkansas]

Happy Thanksgiving!

Looks like forecasts are leaning toward 6+ for my hometown in KS. Been awhile since they had a big snow like that.

[bubba hotep]

Models are trending wetter for Texas. Maybe b/c the surging -NAO is forcing things to buckle a bit and slow down?

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!

[Brent]

That is a big snowstorm showing up in Kansas tomorrow I don't even think they had one last year at all and here we are in November....I'm just saying... it's definitely making me wonder assuming it pans out