Texas Spring 2023
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Spring 2023
Just located the boundary in Oklahoma, it's from Tahlequah to Eufaula to Ada and into Texas from Waurika.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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wxman57
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- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Texas Snowman wrote:Spring Cancel!!!
Brent wrote:I know everyone is watching tomorrow but I can't take my eyes off next week... Just gets colder and colder as the week goes on. Spring what?
Best of both worlds. Cold for you guys up north and upper 70s to mid 80s for Houston through next Friday.
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Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Spring 2023
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Spring 2023
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Looks like a pretty substantial W shift of the Moderate/Enhanced areas with the incoming SPC Outlook. SE edges trimmed back.
Last edited by cstrunk on Thu Mar 02, 2023 11:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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bubba hotep
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- Location: Collin County Texas
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cycloneye
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Re: Texas Spring 2023
The text of the latest update at 16:30 UTC.
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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Spring 2023
WacoWx wrote:Significant shift west.
Saddle up folks, a bumpy evening is ahead. Of course I have a 12 hr shift today leaving my wife and kid alone. Don't like that one bit.
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HockeyTx82
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Re: Texas Spring 2023
So when does the show start if it does? Is this still conditional or a just a matter of when and where?
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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cycloneye
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Re: Texas Spring 2023
TWC torcon went down from 7 to 5 after the latest update.
https://twitter.com/mikebettes/status/1631334827344404481
https://twitter.com/mikebettes/status/1631334827344404481
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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ElectricStorm
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Re: Texas Spring 2023
SPC dropped the 15% tornado area, which makes sense considering how quick this will probably go linear after the initial hail threat. Strong tornadoes still possible, just likely less of them than initially feared.
That being said, serious hail risk for DFW, and wind threat further east, hopefully everyone is prepared.
I actually think the DFW area could be in the greatest risk area for strong tornadoes considering the initial supercellular storm mode. Hopefully not though
That being said, serious hail risk for DFW, and wind threat further east, hopefully everyone is prepared.
I actually think the DFW area could be in the greatest risk area for strong tornadoes considering the initial supercellular storm mode. Hopefully not though
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Spring 2023
Mesoscale Discussion 0226
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 AM CST Thu Mar 02 2023
Areas affected...parts of north Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 021655Z - 021930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to increase in a corridor
roughly from near Abilene to Gainesville through early afternoon,
with damaging hail the most likely threat. Substantial hail damage
may occur.
DISCUSSION...A quasi-stationary front extends from a developing low
over southwest TX east/northeastward into north TX, with substantial
boundary-layer moisture streaming north toward the front. Isolated
storms have formed over Eastland County, and additional cells are
likely to develop as theta-e advection increases along the boundary.
Visible imagery indicates plentiful heating will occur ahead of the
low and across western parts of the front, which will steepen lapse
rates and aid updraft strength and hail potential.
Hodographs will become quite elongated today, with deep-layer shear
averaging 60-70 kt. Combined with the increasing moisture, this
should aid cells capable of very large damaging hail. One or more
storms may produce large amounts of significant hail. Storms will
move quickly northeast toward the Red River and may cross into OK
later today.
..Jewell/Thompson.. 03/02/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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WacoWx
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Re: Texas Spring 2023
I know the TorCon is frowned upon here, but it getting lowered from a 7 to a 5 makes me feel a lot better about how TWC mets must be interpreting the instability/tornadic probabilities in the environment. I will take massive hail all day over twisters.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023
Haven’t had a ton of sun in my area today and it’s actually lightly raining right now.
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HockeyTx82
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Re: Texas Spring 2023
If I am looking at it correctly last HRRR run has cells west and nw of DFW, quickly forms a line. Drastically different then previous runs I think, no?
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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Iceresistance
- Category 5
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- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Storms are initiating north of Abilene, TX, here we go.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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rwfromkansas
- Category 5
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- Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
- Location: North Fort Worth
Re: Texas Spring 2023
WacoWx wrote:I know the TorCon is frowned upon here, but it getting lowered from a 7 to a 5 makes me feel a lot better about how TWC mets must be interpreting the instability/tornadic probabilities in the environment. I will take massive hail all day over twisters.
Yikes. I'm the opposite. Hail can destroy a large part of a town.
Tornadoes usually cover very small areas. Hail scares me more.
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