Texas Spring 2024

[rwfromkansas]

Maybe that line is some outflow? The front is in KS still.

[snownado]

Tomorrow and Saturday look really bad for y’all in NTX. Are y’all sleeping or just don’t care? Have y’all all of a sudden lost your passion for the weather? Lol

There have been several setups this season that looked good on paper but failed to execute/deliver for various reasons (thus emphasis on the "exhaustion from teasing" mentioned in my reply).

At this point, I'll believe it when I see it.

I mean, I wouldn’t let your guard down just cuz of failed past events. DFW can get some crazy severe weather. Way worse than my part of the state.

For sure.

My response was more so addressing the lack of interest/excitement with the potential setup. And it's understandable in light of both seasonal trends this year as well as the fact that we're well beyond the climatological peak for severe weather season (late April / early May) in DFW. Not to say it can't still happen, but the probability/odds of widespread severe activity is steadily declining from here on out with the westerlies realigning to the north.

I will add, BTW, the latest CAMs tomorrow afternoon/evening aren't even looking all that hot for the Metroplex right now. But of course, if things do get cracking tomorrow, then great (I'll be here for it)...

[HockeyTx82]

There have been several setups this season that looked good on paper but failed to execute/deliver for various reasons (thus emphasis on the "exhaustion from teasing" mentioned in my reply).

At this point, I'll believe it when I see it.

I mean, I wouldn’t let your guard down just cuz of failed past events. DFW can get some crazy severe weather. Way worse than my part of the state.

For sure.

My response was more so addressing the lack of interest/excitement with the potential setup. And it's understandable in light of both seasonal trends this year as well as the fact that we're well beyond the climatological peak for severe weather season (late April / early May) in DFW. Not to say it can't still happen, but the probability/odds of widespread severe activity are steadily declining from here on out with the westerlies realigning to the north.

I will add, BTW, the latest CAMs tomorrow afternoon/evening aren't even looking all that hot for the Metroplex right now. But of course, if things do get cracking tomorrow, then great (I'll be here for it)...

What are CAMs and how do they help in forecasts? I keep seeing mention of them but don't know how or where to access it.

[HockeyTx82]

Well maybe Copilot just answered it for me....

CAMs, or Convection-Allowing Models, are high-resolution numerical weather prediction models that are capable of simulating individual thunderstorms across large areas, such as the entire continental United States³. These models are extremely valuable to forecasters because they provide detailed information on storm types, which are strongly related to expected hazards⁴. CAMs can produce hourly simulated radar imagery that looks very real, helping to provide specific information about timing, location, and threat to partners, clients, and the public⁴.

To access CAMs data for weather forecasts, you can visit the Atmosphere Data Store (ADS), which is the main point of access to CAMs data provided by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)⁵. The ADS offers data access to the Global Reanalysis, the Regional Analyses and Forecasts, the Solar Radiation Service, and the Inversion-Optimised Greenhouse Gas Fluxes⁵. Additionally, the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) provides real-time CAM data, which can be accessed through their website⁶.

These tools are essential for meteorologists and researchers in the field of atmospheric sciences, providing them with the necessary data to analyze and predict weather patterns more accurately.

Source: Conversation with Copilot, 5/21/2024
(1) Research Tools:Simulation - NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory. https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/tools/simulation/.
(2) How Convection-Allowing Models Have Changed Our World. https://nwas.org/convection-allowing-mo ... ged-world/.
(3) Data | Copernicus. https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/data.
(4) NSSL CAMs. https://cams.nssl.noaa.gov/.
(5) CAMS Global atmospheric composition forecasts | ECMWF. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/data ... -forecasts.
(6) ACP - The CAMS reanalysis of atmospheric composition. https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/3515/2019/.
(7) How to set up the Weather widget in your stream - CamStreamer. https://support.camstreamer.com/hc/en-u ... our-stream.
(8) Getting Started Guide | OpenSnow. https://opensnow.com/news/post/getting-started-guide.
(9) undefined. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3515-2019.

[snownado]

I mean, I wouldn’t let your guard down just cuz of failed past events. DFW can get some crazy severe weather. Way worse than my part of the state.

For sure.

My response was more so addressing the lack of interest/excitement with the potential setup. And it's understandable in light of both seasonal trends this year as well as the fact that we're well beyond the climatological peak for severe weather season (late April / early May) in DFW. Not to say it can't still happen, but the probability/odds of widespread severe activity are steadily declining from here on out with the westerlies realigning to the north.

I will add, BTW, the latest CAMs tomorrow afternoon/evening aren't even looking all that hot for the Metroplex right now. But of course, if things do get cracking tomorrow, then great (I'll be here for it)...

What are CAMs and how do they help in forecasts? I keep seeing mention of them but don't know how or where to access it.

CAMs = Convection-Allowing Models.

In essence, they're Hi-Res models that are able to simulate thunderstorm activity on a mesoscale level, thus highlighting specific areas in a broader synoptic setup most susceptible to development

So for example, this would be the HRRR, 3km NAM, NBM, ARW, etc.

[WacoWx]

Pretty solid t-storm about to roll through Dallas. Caught the edge of it here in Las Colinas.

[snownado]

Pretty solid t-storm about to roll through Dallas. Caught the edge of it here in Las Colinas.

That cell must have been really elevated, because DFW picked up nothing measurable and DAL only picked up 0.04"...

It had virtually no impact on temps either, as DFW is now up to 88*F.

[snownado]

The forecast high from NWS for Austin on Sunday is 98.

I'm not ready for spring to be over.

The current forecast for DFW is also 98*F on Sunday.

[rwfromkansas]

Not much happening on radar. Nevermind. Tomorrow is the storm day. Lost track of my days.

[Brent]

Iowa is sure having a heck of a tornado season. Wouldn't be surprised if that's the strongest tornado of the year

[Cpv17]

Iowa is sure having a heck of a tornado season. Wouldn't be surprised if that's the strongest tornado of the year

Well it definitely looked like the worst damage I’ve seen so far this year. I think it was a solid EF4, for sure. Thankfully it didn’t look that wide though.

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah that's probably the worst damage I've seen since at least Rolling Fork last year and maybe Mayfield 2021. Extremely high end tornado

[Anti-freeze]

"Alleged" tornado, per NBC....

[Cpv17]

"Alleged" tornado, per NBC....

[HockeyTx82]

Hey there, I'm starting to see some storm fire southwest of DFW. I have a bad feeling about today, and I think it's going to be a rough one for North Texas. It's weird that there aren't many posts or warnings from the weather community. That makes me think we're in for it.

[snownado]

Hey there, I'm starting to see some storm fire southwest of DFW. I have a bad feeling about today, and I think it's going to be a rough one for North Texas. It's weird that there aren't many posts or warnings from the weather community. That makes me think we're in for it.

Besides many folks waiting to see if this won't be yet another rug pull for DFW (as we discussed earlier, and the jury is still out on this), in all fairness, the setup today (for what it is) does pale in comparison to what is looming this weekend as well as what happened yesterday.

[gpsnowman]

Hey there, I'm starting to see some storm fire southwest of DFW. I have a bad feeling about today, and I think it's going to be a rough one for North Texas. It's weird that there aren't many posts or warnings from the weather community. That makes me think we're in for it.

Besides many folks waiting to see if this won't be yet another rug pull for DFW (as we discussed earlier, and the jury is still out on this), in all fairness, the setup today (for what it is) does pale in comparison to what is looming this weekend as well as what happened yesterday.

Some gorgeous indoor weather coming up. Hooray.

[WacoWx]

I just need it to be clear tomorrow morning for a golf tournament in Dallas.

[HockeyTx82]

Hey there, I'm starting to see some storm fire southwest of DFW. I have a bad feeling about today, and I think it's going to be a rough one for North Texas. It's weird that there aren't many posts or warnings from the weather community. That makes me think we're in for it.

Besides many folks waiting to see if this won't be yet another rug pull for DFW (as we discussed earlier, and the jury is still out on this), in all fairness, the setup today (for what it is) does pale in comparison to what is looming this weekend as well as what happened yesterday.

I keep hearing of talk about Saturday. What are we expecting? What are you seeing? What are people talking about?

Do I need to go to church and make my peace with God?

The latest outlook I am looking at appears to have shifted much more north and east of Texas. Yes, I agree DFW proper is still in it, but we're on the very southern fringe. Perhaps a more northward trajectory is now anticipated.?

[snownado]

Hey there, I'm starting to see some storm fire southwest of DFW. I have a bad feeling about today, and I think it's going to be a rough one for North Texas. It's weird that there aren't many posts or warnings from the weather community. That makes me think we're in for it.

Besides many folks waiting to see if this won't be yet another rug pull for DFW (as we discussed earlier, and the jury is still out on this), in all fairness, the setup today (for what it is) does pale in comparison to what is looming this weekend as well as what happened yesterday.

I keep hearing of talk about Saturday. What are we expecting? What are you seeing? What are people talking about?

Do I need to go to church and make my peace with God?

The latest outlook I am looking at appears to have shifted much more north and east of Texas. Yes, I agree DFW proper is still in it, but we're on the very southern fringe. Perhaps a more northward trajectory is now anticipated.?

Saturday's going to be yet another episode mostly for OK / KS / AR. Parts of N. / NE TX may get some outflow remnants and cloud debris though.