Texas Winter 2022-2023

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South Texas Storms
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6421 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Feb 22, 2023 5:47 pm

Bhow wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
Bhow wrote:Still have a lot to learn obviously but in all of these recent systems the storms always blow up east of us although dew points are always 60+ so seems there’s plenty of moisture.


Yeah these storm systems haven't been digging far enough south. Not enough lift to overcome the capping inversion. Moisture is rarely an issue here. A lack of lift is the primary problem for us.

So why aren’t those systems too far north for areas further east but on the same longitude? Those storms always cut northeast so if there’s not enough lift here you would think there’s even less lift in the southeast as the low lifts further north.


They have a weaker capping inversion due to there not being a desert west of them. We have a stronger cap to overcome due to the Mexican desert.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6422 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 22, 2023 5:51 pm

News 9 (KWTV) has mentioned the possibility of a nasty outbreak on Sunday, the map they showed does include Northern Texas.
Last edited by Iceresistance on Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6423 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Feb 22, 2023 9:16 pm

Iceresistance wrote:News 9 (KWTV) has mentioned the possibility of a nasty outbreak on Sunday, the may they showed does include Northern Texas.


Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6424 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:16 am

0z GFS with 30 inches of snow near Kansas City :spam:

But yes Sunday is looking interesting
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6425 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:18 am

Brent wrote:0z GFS with 30 inches of snow near Kansas City :spam:

But yes Sunday is looking interesting


Now it has nothing for them and snow back in Texas on the 6z lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6426 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:34 am

bubba hotep wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:News 9 (KWTV) has mentioned the possibility of a nasty outbreak on Sunday, the may they showed does include Northern Texas.


https://x-hv1.pivotalweather.com/maps/spc/spcd5prob.us_sc.png

This is why you DON'T hotlink posts!
Image
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/spcd4prob.us_sc.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6427 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:41 am

Made it down to 27. If I remember correctly, the forecasted low wasn’t anywhere near that cold.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6428 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:46 am

Single digits in Oklahoma and TX panhandles.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6429 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:52 am

Ntxw wrote:Single digits in Oklahoma and TX panhandles.

It got down to 0 north of Guymon, OK
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6430 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:53 am

Iceresistance wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:News 9 (KWTV) has mentioned the possibility of a nasty outbreak on Sunday, the may they showed does include Northern Texas.


https://x-hv1.pivotalweather.com/maps/spc/spcd5prob.us_sc.png

This is why you DON'T hotlink posts!
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/spcd4prob.us_sc.png
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/spcd4prob.us_sc.png

Still a ways out I know, but when was the last time okc was bullseye’d like that?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6431 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Feb 23, 2023 9:26 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:

Still a ways out I know, but when was the last time okc was bullseye’d like that?


I was thinking the same thing. It’s pretty rare lately for that area to be in the bullseye instead of the Dixie.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6432 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 23, 2023 9:33 am

Cpv17 wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:

Still a ways out I know, but when was the last time okc was bullseye’d like that?


I was thinking the same thing. It’s pretty rare lately for that area to be in the bullseye instead of the Dixie.

Especially the time of the year!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6433 Postby wxman57 » Thu Feb 23, 2023 11:34 am

12Z GFS back to "never mind" about any snow in NE TX. Meanwhile, had a nice low of 70 here yesterday but only hit 82 for the high due to some morning rain.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6434 Postby Edwards Limestone » Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:29 pm

We still need lots of moisture down here in the TX Hill Country. If it's gonna be this hot/humid, can we get some rain?
How's SOI look guys? Any relief in sight?

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6435 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:30 pm

Edwards Limestone wrote:We still need lots of moisture down here in the TX Hill Country. If it's gonna be this hot/humid, can we get some rain?
How's SOI look guys? Any relief in sight?

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20230221/20230221_tx_text.png


I hope so, the SOI is also looking more promising, were on a 3 day streak of daily -SOI values, today is just above -17.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6436 Postby wxman57 » Thu Feb 23, 2023 3:32 pm

The pattern is not good for Hill Country rainfall. Pacific fronts won't run into enough moisture until they reach east Texas. Cold front appears to have stalled north of Houston. It's 83F here and in the 50s-60s from Waco to DFW. Time for a bike ride...
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6437 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 23, 2023 3:55 pm

Still only 39 here... Way colder than forecast
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6438 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 23, 2023 4:35 pm

Brent wrote:Still only 39 here... Way colder than forecast

40 for me, it was expected to be 44 today.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6439 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 23, 2023 4:36 pm

I need to point this out because Northern Texas and parts of Central and Western Oklahoma could have Freezing Rain/Drizzle tonight, this is being picked up by the Mesoscale models.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6440 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 23, 2023 4:43 pm

Take a look at the MJO! Hope for a Winter into March has not been lost! :cold: :froze: :cold:

Image
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/GEFS.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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