Texas Winter 2013-2014
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Re:
SaskatchewanScreamer wrote:I can't believe I'm saying this but please send some of your heat up here!!! We will be tickled pink to send our cold down there in return!!!
I'm worried I'm going to find my tropicals limp from freezing temps!
From an almost frostbitten Canadian
Tireman4 is hogging it all down in Houston (heat), Ms Screamer! He wants you to freeze early so there's plenty supply to come down when winter hits for his jogging enjoyment.
You neglected us for a lot of last season and sent much of it to your fellow pals in eastern Canada! We need an insurance policy that your fans will be aimed more south this year
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Re:
Ntxw wrote:SaskatchewanScreamer wrote:I can't believe I'm saying this but please send some of your heat up here!!! We will be tickled pink to send our cold down there in return!!!
I'm worried I'm going to find my tropicals limp from freezing temps!
From an almost frostbitten Canadian
Tireman4 is hogging it all down in Houston (heat), Ms Screamer! He wants you to freeze early so there's plenty supply to come down when winter hits for his jogging enjoyment.
You neglected us for a lot of last season and sent much of it to your fellow pals in eastern Canada! We need an insurance policy that your fans will be aimed more south this year
Hey I sent snow down there! Now it is your turn to send a little heat this-a-way!
Tit for tat!!!
(Why do I feel like I'm talking to Satan????????)
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- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
No Screamer ... don't give me this "I sent snow your way" stuff ... considering how cold and snowy you were, you could have done a much better job of encasing us in ice down here in the Lone Star State! We're all disappointed. But guess what? There is opportunity for you to renew our confidence in you. You have a new season coming in a few months and we'll expect a better effort from you ... start working on those fans!
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- Tireman4
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
Portastorm wrote::uarrow:
No Screamer ... don't give me this "I sent snow your way" stuff ... considering how cold and snowy you were, you could have done a much better job of encasing us in ice down here in the Lone Star State! We're all disappointed. But guess what? There is opportunity for you to renew our confidence in you. You have a new season coming in a few months and we'll expect a better effort from you ... start working on those fans!
You boys at the PWC better get cracking too mister (:)). I want all the frozen stuff. I want cold. I want crisp north winds. I want it ALL!!
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- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
I know Tireman ... I know. PWC was terrible last winter. We also let everyone down.
But we're working with our North Texas branch (Ntxw) to ensure that Texas Winter 2013-14 is a great one. We know you're getting tired of these runs in 110-degree heat indices.
But we're working with our North Texas branch (Ntxw) to ensure that Texas Winter 2013-14 is a great one. We know you're getting tired of these runs in 110-degree heat indices.
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I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
Portastorm wrote:I know Tireman ... I know. PWC was terrible last winter. We also let everyone down.
But we're working with our North Texas branch (Ntxw) to ensure that Texas Winter 2013-14 is a great one. We know you're getting tired of these runs in 110-degree heat indices.
Yeah, I know. I am so looking forward to my 2:30 pm 7 mile run. I have just dialed it back to an 8 minute pace and said, just get the mileage in. I am too young to die. Sigh.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
Tireman4 wrote:Portastorm wrote:I know Tireman ... I know. PWC was terrible last winter. We also let everyone down.
But we're working with our North Texas branch (Ntxw) to ensure that Texas Winter 2013-14 is a great one. We know you're getting tired of these runs in 110-degree heat indices.
Yeah, I know. I am so looking forward to my 2:30 pm 7 mile run. I have just dialed it back to an 8 minute pace and said, just get the mileage in. I am too young to die. Sigh.
Update: It was actually sorta ok. I was not dying. 7:41 pace was ok. Not great, but ok. LOL. I still want the cold.
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I assure you the North Texas branch of PWC is working diligently with HQ for winter of 2013-2014. Inside sources has mentioned seeing fresh crayons and babies ready to be shipped to scenic southwest Austin. Word is this new resource will be implemented for top of the line accuracy in-house model output maps. Lots of blue and purple, lots of snow depth colors, you want it you got it!
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
Indeed. The PWC will be employing some unusual methods to reclaim it's mojo and offer a dynamic winter season to its Texas patrons. We will be tapping into those young minds for fresh, out-of-the-crib thinking!
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
Portastorm wrote::uarrow:
No Screamer ... don't give me this "I sent snow your way" stuff ... considering how cold and snowy you were, you could have done a much better job of encasing us in ice down here in the Lone Star State! We're all disappointed. But guess what? There is opportunity for you to renew our confidence in you. You have a new season coming in a few months and we'll expect a better effort from you ... start working on those fans!
My friend and her husband headed down to Arizona last winter. She said it was so sad to see the tall cacti there frozen.
Now be fair...we've sent you many a cold front this summer and last winter too! Not my fault you folks didn't have the snow/ice making stuff in place!!!
I WANT HEAT!!!!
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- vbhoutex
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Re:
Ntxw wrote:I assure you the North Texas branch of PWC is working diligently with HQ for winter of 2013-2014. Inside sources has mentioned seeing fresh crayons and babies ready to be shipped to scenic southwest Austin. Word is this new resource will be implemented for top of the line accuracy in-house model output maps. Lots of blue and purple, lots of snow depth colors, you want it you got it!
Until I realized where you were going with this post I was getting a little worried!! Sounds like we may have some of the newer and more accurate model output available. I'll be waiting eagerly for the first runs. Here's hoping they are
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- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
I normally don't pay too much attention to the CFSv2 forecasts for winter this far out but David Tolleris (wxrisk.com) on his Facebook page this afternoon showed a link to this:
http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd2/usT2mMonInd5.gif
I wouldn't mind that verifying, would you?!
http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd2/usT2mMonInd5.gif
I wouldn't mind that verifying, would you?!
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
That's pretty funny Screamer ... I hadn't seen that. And the NWS Lubbock folks are pretty darn creative coming up with that kind of stuff. Well, *someone* is getting our Texas heat because we have not seen it this summer like we have the last few. Perhaps we need to check the angle of our giant heat fans (the ones which were broken the last few years!).
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I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
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It's currently 100 with a H.I. of 106, so lets talk winter.
I said going into Winter of 2012-2013 to not get to hopeful, but to look to Winter of 2013-2014 when we should see the return of El Nino and a wetter colder pattern taking shape across the lower 48.
July in Texas was pretty nice with much needed rainfall from the retro Low that took its time crossing the state. Also Looking at the Tropics they are starting to pickup as well. While the Sun has shown us it's BALD spot...lol, Winter on the other side of the globe has been record breaking. I can't wait till late September when we see our first (and very early) cold front come sweeping in from the Great North West.
I said going into Winter of 2012-2013 to not get to hopeful, but to look to Winter of 2013-2014 when we should see the return of El Nino and a wetter colder pattern taking shape across the lower 48.
July in Texas was pretty nice with much needed rainfall from the retro Low that took its time crossing the state. Also Looking at the Tropics they are starting to pickup as well. While the Sun has shown us it's BALD spot...lol, Winter on the other side of the globe has been record breaking. I can't wait till late September when we see our first (and very early) cold front come sweeping in from the Great North West.
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It's August, and usually by now there's some kind of good sign of a signal that may occur in winter. I have not seen it. I posted possible analog years using neutral values and when they happened, nothing really sticks out. It's going to be a difficult forecast.
The western hemisphere as a whole has been rather cool this year but the decade trend is to forecast warmer. Watching these Pacific SST's is going to be critical this year I bet, especially in the North Pacific. It's going to dictate if the raging PAC Jet will dominate again like the previous few, but then again the north Pacific is very warm which says higher pressures there.
The western hemisphere as a whole has been rather cool this year but the decade trend is to forecast warmer. Watching these Pacific SST's is going to be critical this year I bet, especially in the North Pacific. It's going to dictate if the raging PAC Jet will dominate again like the previous few, but then again the north Pacific is very warm which says higher pressures there.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
I understand what I'm posting below is for the fall but it does have implications for winter. It's basically mid-August and hints start showing up for what the pattern may look like down the road.
*****
Personal choice of Analogs for fall and possibly winter:
Top weighted year: 2001-2002
Honorable mentions: 2008-2009, 1990-1991, 1961-1962
Personally I prefer using years that are post 2000. Since averages and decadal trends are different (2000s+ are constantly warmer than say 1970s) which is why 2001 right now satisfies me the most.
Reasoning: Often my favorite tool to use is looking at sea surface temperatures. They do change but albeit slowly so it gives us enough time to use them as a longer term forecasting tool. ENSO is important, which is why all of these years are neutral, slightly favoring cool. However that is not all that's used. I took PDO data and looked at reconstructed SST's from the past to compare them to the present. 2001 hit the money.
Fall 2001 looked liked this.
Composite of the analogs looks like this
Ok yeah so what makes these years so close? Just putting some maps doesn't make them credible . Well have no fear, along with the SST's mentioned above I took the liberty of matching the summers for those years with what we have so far.
Summer 2013 to date:
Summer of composite analogs:
As you see it's not perfect, but the overall idea is very well matched up. Heat in the mountain west and cool in the east so it gives some credibility this is how it may turn out.
Summary: Overall for the US I believe it's quite likely we'll see a pattern reversal from summer and see some warmth. The one area of the country that will likely see cool is the south and/or gulf coast and surrounding region. Why? tropics...I will get a little further depth of this down this post. While I continue to believe summer ends early for Texas I don't think winter will start early. The PDO has nose dived which most likely won't give us a wet pattern this fall or winter (barring tropics as mentioned below.)
Tropics Connection: With the exception of 1990 these analog years that I have chosen were very active seasons for tropical cyclones in the gulf coast region. Again with the exception of 1990 Texas was effected by a significant named system in all but one. Hurricane Carla, Tropical storm Allison, and Hurricane Ike. A very notorious bunch. This would explain the cool patch seen on the maps posted above in the south for the fall.
*****
Personal choice of Analogs for fall and possibly winter:
Top weighted year: 2001-2002
Honorable mentions: 2008-2009, 1990-1991, 1961-1962
Personally I prefer using years that are post 2000. Since averages and decadal trends are different (2000s+ are constantly warmer than say 1970s) which is why 2001 right now satisfies me the most.
Reasoning: Often my favorite tool to use is looking at sea surface temperatures. They do change but albeit slowly so it gives us enough time to use them as a longer term forecasting tool. ENSO is important, which is why all of these years are neutral, slightly favoring cool. However that is not all that's used. I took PDO data and looked at reconstructed SST's from the past to compare them to the present. 2001 hit the money.
Fall 2001 looked liked this.
Composite of the analogs looks like this
Ok yeah so what makes these years so close? Just putting some maps doesn't make them credible . Well have no fear, along with the SST's mentioned above I took the liberty of matching the summers for those years with what we have so far.
Summer 2013 to date:
Summer of composite analogs:
As you see it's not perfect, but the overall idea is very well matched up. Heat in the mountain west and cool in the east so it gives some credibility this is how it may turn out.
Summary: Overall for the US I believe it's quite likely we'll see a pattern reversal from summer and see some warmth. The one area of the country that will likely see cool is the south and/or gulf coast and surrounding region. Why? tropics...I will get a little further depth of this down this post. While I continue to believe summer ends early for Texas I don't think winter will start early. The PDO has nose dived which most likely won't give us a wet pattern this fall or winter (barring tropics as mentioned below.)
Tropics Connection: With the exception of 1990 these analog years that I have chosen were very active seasons for tropical cyclones in the gulf coast region. Again with the exception of 1990 Texas was effected by a significant named system in all but one. Hurricane Carla, Tropical storm Allison, and Hurricane Ike. A very notorious bunch. This would explain the cool patch seen on the maps posted above in the south for the fall.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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