Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ntxw]

a CAPE of 1000 J/Kg isn't very favorable for severe weather. It needs to be closer to 2,000 J/kg, And it needs to be near 3,000 J/Kg to attract storm chasers who want to collect data. Ant the big events are usually higher than that, I pretty sure the May 1999 Moore, Oklahoma tornado had a CAPE near 7,500 J/Kg. So with a CAPE as low as 1000 J/Kg, I'm not expecting anything much worse than what storm prediction center is forecasting ,which is some large hail and maybe a couple of tornadoes. Unless we have one of those freak events like Jarrell, TX 1997 where their CAPE increased by like 5,000 J/Kg causing a mini tornado outbreak.

Some good analysis, good to look for those things in the spring severe wx thread. To be fair though our friend TarrantWX wasn't suggesting any kind of big outbreak just perhaps a couple of severe thunderstorms. We'll have to wait and see though, it's not your typical spring severe weather outbreak, more like something you see in winter kind of set ups for thunderstorms.

[TarrantWx]

a CAPE of 1000 J/Kg isn't very favorable for severe weather. It needs to be closer to 2,000 J/kg, And it needs to be near 3,000 J/Kg to attract storm chasers who want to collect data. Ant the big events are usually higher than that, I pretty sure the May 1999 Moore, Oklahoma tornado had a CAPE near 7,500 J/Kg. So with a CAPE as low as 1000 J/Kg, I'm not expecting anything much worse than what storm prediction center is forecasting ,which is some large hail and maybe a couple of tornadoes. Unless we have one of those freak events like Jarrell, TX 1997 where their CAPE increased by like 5,000 J/Kg causing a mini tornado outbreak.

Some good analysis, good to look for those things in the spring severe wx thread. To be fair though our friend TarrantWX wasn't suggesting any kind of big outbreak just perhaps a couple of severe thunderstorms. We'll have to wait and see though, it's not your typical spring severe weather outbreak, more like something you see in winter kind of set ups for thunderstorms.

Yes that's true. Typically with early season severe weather events you don't see the insane CAPE (3000+) that you see in late spring outbreaks. Low-CAPE, high-shear events are quite common in other parts of the U.S. and can be just as dangerous, although you don't tend to get the discrete monster supercells that tend to be the most memorable. Just like a large amount of CAPE can make up for a lack of shear (which we see quite often in May in the Southern Plains), a large amount of shear can sometimes make up for a lack of instability. It's important to pay attention to the big picture and not just one particular index. I'm not saying that this will be one of those events, just saying that it bears watching.

[Lagreeneyes03]

The 00Z Euro ensembles say that the airmass currently over Texas is the coldest that Texas will see through March 28th.

I hope so. NASCAR is the first weekend in April and there's nothing worse than being cold at NASCAR.

Are you sure? Because I'd rather tolerate some cold than having to get through a panicked crowd while a wedge tornado spins towards the speed way.

LOL that's also pretty wild-I've been evacuated from a raceway before (Pocono 2012 where a guy got struck by lightning) It's no picnic for sure.

[TarrantWx]

Well, any severe chances are pretty much gone on the 00z NAM. Hopefully we can get some decent rains out of this system though. Through 48 hours it is indicating 0.5 to 1.5 inches of QPF over northern Texas which would be highly welcomed, with higher amounts to the northeast (imagine that...).

[Ntxw]

Well, any severe chances are pretty much gone on the 00z NAM. Hopefully we can get some decent rains out of this system though. Through 48 hours it is indicating 0.5 to 1.5 inches of QPF over northern Texas which would be highly welcomed, with higher amounts to the northeast (imagine that...).

At the same time it continues to lower heights! 546dm cut off over east Texas. Perhaps someone can see a surprise, ala 2010 equinox but it has to continue to deepen.

2010- I remember this storm well, was the first time I took wxman57 head on for eastplexers

540dm over Texarkana, storm created it's own cold air

2014- Not quite as deep or as cut off but in the ballpark, room to work with a similar pattern.



What it does show is that above our heads, it will be cold but does not yet support below.

[TarrantWx]

Well, any severe chances are pretty much gone on the 00z NAM. Hopefully we can get some decent rains out of this system though. Through 48 hours it is indicating 0.5 to 1.5 inches of QPF over northern Texas which would be highly welcomed, with higher amounts to the northeast (imagine that...).

At the same time it continues to lower heights! 546dm cut off over east Texas. Perhaps someone can see a surprise, ala 2010 equinox but it has to continue to deepen.

2010- I remember this storm well, was the first time I took wxman57 head on for eastplexers

2014- Not quite as deep or as cut off but in the ballpark, room to work with a similar pattern.

What it does show is that above our heads, it will be cold but does not yet support below.

Ntxw, I did notice that the 540 1000-500 thickness line got pretty close as precipitation was ending on the NAM. However, it also showed surface temperatures near 50 which obviously wouldn't support any accumulating wintry precip. Hopefully since the models are trending away from severe weather, they can trend more towards wintry weather!

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, I did notice that the 540 1000-500 thickness line got pretty close as precipitation was ending on the NAM. However, it also showed surface temperatures near 50 which obviously wouldn't support any accumulating wintry precip. Hopefully since the models are trending away from severe weather, they can trend more towards wintry weather!

It's a good trend for the wintry end. It will take a near perfect alignment, this is what happened in 2010. Wxman57 kept telling us it was too warm a couple thousand feet from the surface up. But the low just kept getting stronger and cold air worked it's way down from up above. Typically anything 546dm or lower will generate it's cold air and the models often to not pick it up. A trowel developed and backlash came down from the north all the way to SE Texas. It happened overnight at that and a few bands just sat over Collin, eastern Dallas, and Rockwall counties anywhere from 1-6+". It was a very localized banding event but it can happen if things line up.

[Ntxw]

GFS is stepping in that direction. Need deeper but it certainly has the cold air above our heads with some wrap around light rain behind the low.

Courtesy of NWS FW most of us in NTX would love a repeat of this 1924

[TheProfessor]

So,your saying if everything occurs perfectly, we could possibly end up with some winter weather?

[Lagreeneyes03]

:uarrow: So,your saying if everything occurs perfectly, we could possibly end up with some winter weather?

You have GOT to be kidding me..please God no, this is Texas in March not Minnesota. This weekend after the T-storms??

[wxman57]

NAM says not even close for winter weather in NE TX with this weekend's system. Temps in the 60s and rain, for the most part. Quite warm air aloft during the precip.



GFS says "no way, Jose" as well regarding winter weather in Dallas-Ft. Worth this weekend. Rain with temps in the upper 50s Saturday afternoon/evening, cold air arrives 24 hrs later and it's still not cold enough.

[Ntxw]

Where is the snow miser when you need him, we need believers!

Now to make it clear, I am NOT saying it is going to happen. I threw it out there because of pattern similarities in case it does it happen since it has before!

[Tireman4]

NAM says not even close for winter weather in NE TX with this weekend's system. Temps in the 60s and rain, for the most part. Quite warm air aloft during the precip.

But which one can we believe? You are in a "bi-polar phase" right now. Which one is it? LOL bwhhaaaa

[dhweather]

Around 1" of rain would be nice.

[dhweather]

[TarrantWx]

This is really getting sad. Fort Worth Meachem has only picked up 0.48" of rain for the ENTIRE YEAR so far. Hopefully we get some good rains out of tomorrow's system.

...THREE AREA LAKES FALL TO RECORD LOW LEVELS AS DROUGHT WORSENS...

RECORD LOW YEAR
CURRENT BEFORE DAM WAS
LAKE LEVEL CURRENT DROUGHT COMPLETED

LAKE GRANBURY 683.39 685.28 / AUG 1978 1969
LAKE NOCONA 815.95 816.95 / OCT 2000 1960
LAKE RAY HUBBARD 428.02 429.72 / OCT 2000 1969

[dhweather]

This is really getting sad. Fort Worth Meachem has only picked up 0.48" of rain for the ENTIRE YEAR so far. Hopefully we get some good rains out of tomorrow's system.

...THREE AREA LAKES FALL TO RECORD LOW LEVELS AS DROUGHT WORSENS...

RECORD LOW YEAR
CURRENT BEFORE DAM WAS
LAKE LEVEL CURRENT DROUGHT COMPLETED

LAKE GRANBURY 683.39 685.28 / AUG 1978 1969
LAKE NOCONA 815.95 816.95 / OCT 2000 1960
LAKE RAY HUBBARD 428.02 429.72 / OCT 2000 1969

If the pattern doesn't change in the next couple of months, we will have catastrophic consequences this summer.

[dhweather]

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
100 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

...THREE AREA LAKES FALL TO RECORD LOW LEVELS AS DROUGHT WORSENS...

--------------------------------------------------------------------

SYNOPSIS...

THE STATEWIDE AVERAGE (WATER EQUIVALENT) PRECIPITATION FOR THE
PERIOD JANUARY 1 TO FEBRUARY 28 WAS ONLY 1.06 INCHES...MORE THAN 2
INCHES BELOW NORMAL. THIS WAS THE 5TH DRIEST START TO THE YEAR ON
RECORD (BASED ON DATA SINCE 1895).

THE DRY SPELL HAS CONTINUED INTO MARCH...WITH MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS AMASSING YEAR-TO-DATE PRECIPITATION DEFICITS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES. MANY LOCATIONS IN THE REGION HAVE YET TO TALLY AN INCH...
INCLUDING DFW AIRPORT AND WACO REGIONAL AIRPORT. THROUGH MARCH 13...
THE 2014 TOTAL AT WACO IS THE DRIEST ON RECORD.

THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION HAS RESULTED IN A RAPID EXPANSION OF
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. MODERATE (D1) TO SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT COVERS MUCH
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS AND COLORADO
RIVERS ARE IN EXTREME DROUGHT (D3)...EMPHASIZING THE LONG TERM
HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT. THE WATER LEVELS AT LAKE GRANBURY...LAKE
NOCONA...AND LAKE RAY HUBBARD ARE ALL AT RECORD LOWS.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE TO INDICATE A TRANSITION TO A WET REGIME
ANY TIME SOON...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EL NINO
WATCH. BASED ON LONG RANGE COMPUTER MODEL OUTPUT...THERE IS NOW A
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT EL NINO CONDITIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE BY THE END OF 2014. WHILE THIS MAY ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS EARLY AS THIS COMING FALL...THE REGION WILL LIKELY SUFFER
THROUGH A 4TH CONSECUTIVE SUMMER WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

[dhweather]

MUNICIPAL WATER STORAGE - PERCENT OF CONSERVATION

CURRENT DATA ONE YEAR AGO ONE-YEAR
MARCH 13, 2014 MARCH 13, 2013 CHANGE

DALLAS 67.8 80.0 -12.2
FORT WORTH 71.2 78.2 -7.0
WACO 92.0 85.4 +6.6
TEMPLE/KILLEEN 75.6 81.3 -5.7

[wxman57]

No amount of wishcasting is going to get snow anywhere near NE TX this weekend. Temperatures across Houston hover between cold and warm for the next 2 weeks. Generally below normal for March. Even colder toward the end of March, well below normal.